asked the Chancellor of the Exchequer what is his latest estimate of the consequences for the British economy of the trends in world trading conditions.
The world recession in the first half of this year has been deeper than was foreseen earlier, and this has led to some decline—but fortunately not a commensurate decline—in United Kingdom export volumes. The timing of the recovery in world trade remains uncertain. There are already signs of an incipient upturn in the United States; but elsewhere recovery is likely to be more delayed. Even so, there remains a good prospect that world demand and trade will grow strongly during next year, and this should be reflected in a strong recovery in United Kingdom export volume. The new pay policy will help to make United Kingdom exporters more competitive, thus enabling them to take full advantage of the upswing.