asked the Chancellor of the Exchequer what is his estimate of

Forecasts of exports and imports of goods and services at constant prices were published in successive issues of the Financial Statement and Budget Report. The table below gives the forecasts and outturns, expressed as percentage changes on a year earlier. Except for those published in 1973 the forecasts of percentage changes were rounded to the nearest half point.the loss of tax in 1977–78 and in a full year if the starting threshold for VAT were raised from the 1972 figure of £5,000 to £10,000, £15,000, £20,000, £25,000 and £30,000, respectively; and what that threshold should be through 1977–78 to have the same real value as in 1972.

The loss of revenue in 1977–78 would depend on the dates at which deregistration of persons choosing not to remain registered for VAT became effective. It is estimated the losses in a full year would be:

Exemption Limit(£'000 p.a. taxable turnover)	Revenue Loss(£ million)
10	45
15	75
20	95
25	110
30	120

The exemption limit of £5,000 a year became effective on the introduction of VAT on 1st April 1973. If the limit were to be raised in line with price increases over the four years to March 1977 it would become £9,750 a year.