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Exports And Imports

Volume 931: debated on Monday 9 May 1977

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asked the Chancellor of the Exchequer whether he will publish

Exports* of Goods and Services Actual ForecastImports* of Goods and Services
ActualForecastActualForecast
Date of ForecastPeriod of ForecastPercentage changes on a year earlier
1973 March1973 I9·15·912·28·8
1973 II14·68·614·37·2
1974 I9·95·14·16·1
1974 March1974 I9·91·04·120
1974 II4·44·5−2·83·5
1974 November1974 II4·45·0−2·8−1·5
1975 I−2·84·5−7·53·5
1975 April1975 I−2·80·0−7·5−4·0
1975 II−4·81·0−5·2−1·0
1976 I3·65·04·24·5
1976 April1976 I3·63·54·24·0
1976 II9·29·57·56·5
*At constant prices.

asked the Chancellor of the Exchequer what is his working assumption of income elasticity of demand for United Kingdom manufactured exports.

Research in the Treasury and Department of Trade into the determinates of United Kingdom manufactured exports has had difficulty in discriminating clearly between (i) a low world trade elasticity—of about 0·6—and (ii) a higher world trade elasticity—of about one—combined with a loss of share due to factors unrelated to world activity. The Treasury model currently employs the second approach, but the implications of both methods are studied in any forecast. Estimates of elasticities with respect to income are not directly available, since the relationship between world trade and income is subject to wide variation.