asked the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food what are the latest figures available for the percentage effect on the overall price of food and the retail price index of adjusting the value of the green pound to bring it into line with the price of the £ sterling; what steps he is taking to protect the consumer against this sort of movement; and if he will make a statement.

It would require a devaluation of about 23 per cent. to bring the green pound fully into line with the current market rate used for calculating MCAs. The exact effect of a change of this order cannot be predicted but I estimate that it might eventually raise retail food prices by between 5 per cent. and 6½ per cent. on average and the retail price index by between 1¼ per cent. and 1½ per cent. I have made it clear that the timing and extent of any change must be judged against the national interest as a whole including the impact on the cost of living.

I omitted to tell the House that fewer and shorter supplementary questions and briefer ministerial replies—I am not referring to the one that we have just heard—help us to reach more Questions.

Will my right hon. Friend take the opportunity of pointing out to the housewives of Britain that they will have to face price increases at the beginning of the year anyway because of the transitional arrangements with the EEC? Will he make it clear to our partners in Europe and to the farming interests in this country that under no circumstances will he consider any devaluation of the green pound?

I made the position clear to the housewives on 17th February, in answers to questions from my hon. Friend the Member for Newham, South (Mr. Spearing) and the hon. Member for Banbury (Mr. Marten), and on various tedious occasions afterwards. Of course the transitional steps will mean a gradual increase in prices, not necessarily on 1st January. Thanks to the butter subsidy, which the Opposition chided me for achieving, increases will be spread over a longer period.

Is the right hon. Gentleman aware that the disparity between the green pound and the real rate is one of the greatest single factors promoting the export of cattle from this country for slaughter abroad? Does he not agree that the many people who condemn the export of cattle should welcome a readjustment in the green pound?

The connection between those two points is rather remote. I suspect that those who object to the export of live animals do so for compassionate reasons. If one were to devalue the green pound it would assist certain elements in agriculture, but I have to achieve a balance in the national interest.

Does the right hon. Gentleman agree that the time has come to devalue the green pound by 10 per cent. if confidence is to be restored in the beef and pig sector of the agriculture industry?

If I did agree with the hon. Member, I certainly would not say so at this time. I cannot imagine anything that would have a greater effect on speculation. I am willing to listen to hon. Members' advice. I get a great deal of advice. The right hon. Member for Yeovil (Mr. Peyton) suggests that I devalue by 7½ per cent., the hon. Member for Cardigan (Mr. Howells) says 10 per cent. and my hon. Friend the Member for Cannock (Mr. Roberts) says zero.

When my right hon. Friend goes to Europe for discussions will he say why the green pound and the pigmeat MCAs are different? When will the Commission come forward with proposals on the pigmeat MCAs?

Yes, because the question of pigmeat MCAs concerns not so much the value of the green pound—or the green franc or the green lire, because they are involved in this as well—but on the method used to calculate the MCAs. We have been pressing the Commission on this for some months now. I am glad to say that at the last council we were supported by the French and Italians, and I hope that between the three of us we can move the Commission more speedily.

May I say how glad I am that the Minister is on his way to recovery, though I doubt whether this is the right place in which to complete recovery? I hope that he will, however.

I thank the right hon. Member for Yeovil (Mr. Peyton) for his kind remarks. I feel a lot better as I see these old familiar faces all around me.

asked the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food if he will make a statement about the value of the green pound.

The difference between the representative rate for sterling and the market rate used for the purpose of calulating monetary compensatory amounts is now £1=1·30696 units of account, giving an applied MCA percentage of 28·9. I continue to keep the rate for the green pound under review.

Is the Minister aware that the reply will be received with great disappointment by the pig and beef sectors, and will he tell the House what he is going to do to help the livestock producers over the next three months?

I was trying to answer the question as factually as I could. A number of factors are moving somewhat in the livestock producer's favour. There has been, as there always is at this time of year, an increase in the home market for beef. It happens that at this time there is an increase in exports of Irish beef to this country—an increase which the Irish themselves did not believe would happen. Their calculations were for a drop in production, not an increase, let alone an increase in exports. The fact is that food costs will probably drop a little further, and the target price during the winter will increase.

Is it not true that the grain crop in this country in the current year has increased to 17 million tons for the first time—an all-time record? Against this background, is it not nonsense for Conservative Members continually to claim that the farming community is hard pressed?

Certain parts of the farming industry are in difficulties, and it is no use denying it. Other parts are doing very well. I have to tread very carefully on the question of a record harvest. I was chided by Sir Henry Plumb and by various members of the Conservative Front Bench for daring to say that there might be one.

Does the Minister recognise that while he maintains this very large differential, distortions are being set up in the market which will not be in the interests of the housewife in the long run?

That is one of the factors that have to be watched. I have always said that we have to keep an absolute balance on the matter of the green pound. It is no good taking a specific sector while, at the same time, ignoring the fact that many of the imports that the housewife needs come in a good deal cheaper than they would otherwise. If I am to be both Minister of Agriculture and Minister of Food, as I must be, I must keep the balance.

Has my right hon. Friend considered publishing a table containing the possible price variations and inflation variations associated with our revaluing the green pound, so that, for example, 1 per cent. upwards would mean so much on inflation, so much on consumer prices, so much on wage demands, and so much unemployment? It would clear our minds if we could have that information.

If my hon. Friend would care to table a Question, I shall see what I can do.

Will the right hon. Gentleman identify the large sections of the livestock industry which he thinks are doing particularly well at the moment? My hon. Friend the Member for Louth (Mr. Brotherton) mentioned beef and bacon, but he did not mention milk or dairy products. Will the right hon. Gentleman take the opportunity to say what will happen to dairy products after the end of the year?

I could, but I will not, because I am not yet in a position to do so. As the right hon. Gentleman must be aware—none more so—this has been an extremely good year for milk yield, and it was that which I had particularly in mind when I tried to isolate those parts of the livestock industry which I thought were doing not so well. As to pigs, there is difficulty with processing, but for the pig producer the position is undoubtedly improving.

asked the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food on what grounds he withdrew his opposition to the proposed new Community regulations enabling the manufacture and marketing of products containing non-milk fats to be restricted.

My right hon. Friend has always objected to any proposal to restrict the manufacture and marketing of products containing non-milk fats. There is now no such implementing proposal on the table.

I thank the Minister for his reply. It seemed likely that the Council of Ministers would approve this regulation, and I am pleased to hear the Minister's denial of it.

I am glad that the hon. Member is satisfied with our assurance. We believe that the best approach is to reduce surpluses and not to restrict the freedom of choice of food manufacturers and consumers generally.

asked the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food if he will use his influence in the Council of Ministers in Brussels to modify the common agricultural policy on the lines set out in the proposed common food policy.

The Food and Drink Industries Council's proposal for a common food policy is a useful contribution to discussions on the common agricultural policy. Its main aim of bringing about a better balance between producer and consumer is in line with the objectives that I have consistently pursued.

Does the Minister agree that to produce surpluses to buy into intervention is no longer adequate in the present marketing context? Does he further agree that some other method, be it by way of quotas or targets, is in the interests of the consumer, the food processer and, ultimately, the primary producer?

I said that I thought that the Council's report was interesting. Where I differ from it is precisely in respect of these production quotas. I think that they are a bit too rigid. I have always thought that the real way to tackle surpluses in the Community was through the end price. It is by producing food at a price that people can afford to pay that one avoids structural surpluses

In the context of my right hon. Friend's continuing efforts to get better sense in to the CAP ill he try to persuade the Council of Ministers to give more urgent attention to the need to recalculate the pig meat MCAs, in view of their drastic and critical effect on the processing end of the industry and the very real threat to jobs which is bound up with that?

I am glad that my hon. Friend the Member for Hemel Hempstead (Mr. Corbett) has made this point, because it is vital. It seems that if one is to come into disagreement, as one must, there should at least be no disagreement on the method of calculating the MCAs, and the fact is that the method now adopted is outrageously wrong.

Is the Minister aware of the proposals for CAP reform as set out by Professor Marsh in the Centre for Agricultural Strategy report? When does he expect to be able to comment on that?

I think that I might try now. Basically they are very interesting proposals. Professor Marsh skates round one difficulty when he talks about a common trade policy. It is all very well to say that, but how are we to get the Nine to agree? How are we to get Germany, which lives on high prices, and the United Kingdom, which is on a much lower basis, to agree on a common trade policy?

asked the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food what action he is taking to ensure that the Community's common external tariff is lowered to allow easier entry of foodstuffs, such as manufacturing beef and honey, of which inadequate supplies are produced within the Community.

The reduction of tariffs on foodstuffs is one of the objects of the current GATT multilateral trade negotiations. My right hon. Friend the Minister hopes that it will be possible to achieve significant reductions on the Community's tariffs in return for reductions in the tariffs of other countries. Importation of manufacturing beef into the Community is covered by the balance sheet arrangements which permit specified quantities to be imported at a reduced rate of levy.

I thank the Minister for his reply, but may I emphasise one point? To move away from beef and honey, is he aware that there are other areas where we are about to face fairly hefty increases in import duty—for example, on mandarin oranges? Can he give the House any idea what representations have been made to avoid that, particularly since 95 per cent. of these imports come from Spain, which is seeking entry into the Community? It seems ludicrous.

The hon. Gentleman will be the first to recognise that one consequence of Spain's coming into the Community would be the eventual elimination of these tariffs and levies. I agree that there are far too many of them on products coming into this country as a result of Community arrangements. The Government are continuing to strive to have them reduced.

Does my hon. Friend not agree that it would have been much better to try to modify the impositions by the Common Market upon us before we went in? Does he not think it is rather cynical for those who voted for use to go in now to complain about the consequences?

I do not think that it would be appropriate for me to reopen the issue of our membership of the Community. However, my hon. Friend and I are agreed on a broad range of changes which we must endeavour to achieve now that we are in the Community.

Does the Minister agree that the sudden ending of the standstill agreement will result in the duty on mandarin oranges rising from 7½ per cent. to 22 per cent? Will he say what action he is taking with our Community partners to deal with this situation to ensure that the housewife can still get mandarin oranges at a reasonable price?

I can assure the hon. Member that all of our Community partners are aware of our intense opposition to that type of levy and to many other levies and tariffs, which, on occasions, apply to commodities coming into this country of which there is very limited production in the EEC, where they are out of season anyway.

asked the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food how many badgers he expects to be killed under the powers given by the Diseases of Animals (Badgers) (Control Areas) Order 1977; and what steps he is taking to ensure that the minimum number of badgers are killed, and that the maximum safety precautions are taken when hydrocyanic acid gas is used.

I am afraid that it is not possible to make such an estimate, but gassing is restricted to sets used by tuberculin-infected badgers and their contacts. It is carried out by specially-trained teams of Ministry staff operating under a code of practice containing detailed safety instructions.

I thank my hon. Friend for his answer. Is he certain that no other methods of containing the spread of these diseases are possible, apart from the extermination of the badgers?

I recognise that my hon. Friend has raised an issue that is of considerable concern. I can assure him that we should not have embarked on this course if we were not convinced that it was the only way to reduce the level of tuberculosis infection in the local cattle population and also in the local badger population.

Will my right hon. Friend recognise that the county that I represent suffers especially from this problem? Will he please publish all the evidence that he has to suggest that it is the badgers which are carrying and transmitting this disease? There is a great deal of concern in Gloucestershire about the whole problem.

Yes, I am happy to give my hon. Friend that assurance. Last November we published and placed in the House of Commons Library a report on all the evidence and work that had been done to date. Another report is in preparation and will be published very shortly. I assure my hon. Friend that every step that we have taken in this area has had the support of the consultative panel, which includes representatives of the Nature Conservancy and also leading animal welfare experts.

asked the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food what progress has been made in negotiations between Norway and the European Economic Community regarding fishing quotas.

There have so far been two rounds of consultations about reciprocal fishing possibilities in 1978. Considerable progress has been made on the allocation of the shared stocks in the North Sea, but no quotas have yet been decided upon for stocks in the Norwegian Arctic region. These are being discussed in conjunction with quotas for Norway from stocks occurring exclusively in member States' waters. Further consultations are to be held shortly.

Is the Minister aware of the necessity for urgency in this matter? In Fleetwood we have two trawlers tied up, with the men unemployed, and there are many more in Humberside. Does he agree that it is essential to get agreement on the quotas, so that we know for the future what the supplies will be?

I recognise the urgency of this matter. From the consultations that we have had so far, it seems likely that agreement can be reached on the division of the shared stocks for 1978, but we want to make sure that the United Kingdom gets a share of the available fishing opportunities which is comparable to the contribution that we are making to the Community resources.

Has my right hon. Friend noticed that Norway, by the simple expedient of staying out of the European Economic Community, has obtained a 200-miles exclusive fishing zone, whereas we have not yet obtained one of 50 miles?

I think that my right hon. Friend will want to pay tribute to my right hon. Friend the Minister of Agriculture for the contribution that he has made so far in ensuring that the national interests are looked after.

asked the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food when he will next meet the President of the National Farmers Union.

I have no specific plans, at present, for a meeting with the President of the National Farmers Union but I keep in close touch with the union on matters of concern to agriculture.

When the Minister next meets Sir Henry Plumb, will he dissociate himself and his Government from the remarks of another Minister, the hon. Member for Greenwich (Mr. Barnett), who said recently that he was in favour of the public ownership of land because the individual farmer is not to be trusted to maintain the long-term fertility of the land?

The proper person to whom that question should be addressed is my hon. Friend the Under-Secretary of State for the Environment. There is no reason why I should answer a question that relates to something that I do not believe was in fact ever said.

Will the Minister consider meeting the Newdeer and Turriff branches of the National Farmers Union in Scotland, and discuss with them the dreadful fall in livestock prices in the North-East of Scotland in recent weeks, which they attribute, perhaps rightly, to the imports of subsidised Irish beef? Will the Minister review the position in respect of the rate of variable premium and consider whether the ceiling is now adequate for the market conditions?

I think there is a difficulty in this sector, and not only in regard to Scotland. Perhaps it applies more to Wales, for largely historic reasons. The marketings plus the exports have come at the same time. I believe that the matter will be looked after fairly well during the winter months, but I shall keep the position very closely under review to ensure that that is so.

Reverting to the question of my hon. Friend the Member for Kidderminster (Mr. Bulmer), may I ask the Minister whether he has read the report of what his colleague in the Government said? Does he recall that the report was written by Mr. Jim Murray, who was at one time a Labour parliamentary candidate, and that the words in the report were in quotation marks? We want to know from the Minister today whether he personally agreed with what his colleague in the Government was supposed to have said—that the public ownership of land was justified because individual farmers could not be trusted to look after the long-term fertility of the land.

I will deal with the substantive part of that question, but I was anxious that the House should know that it is absurd to ask one Minister to deal with remarks, however phrased, made by somebody else. For example, if I were to deal with all the remarks made by the hon. Gentleman, I would be in a very sorry state indeed. I said that I would deal with the substantive part of the question. As to the fertility of farmers, surely what is meant is the fertility of farmland. I do not think that I dare raise a voice about the fertility of farmers.

Will my right hon. Friend tell the House a little more about the inquiry which he has asked his noble Friend Lord Northfield to undertake into the ownership of farm land? Was one of the reasons for setting up the inquiry the genuine fears in parts of the industry about the increasing investment by financial institutions in agricultural land, because they are interested not in agriculture but in a potential profit from the land?

My hon. Friend has made a point on this subject which is worth considering. The question of who works the land—whether it is the owner, the tenant farmer or the worker who works for either of them—is a very different one from the question of who owns the land. The Northfield Committee was set up to consider whether the whole structure of agricultural land acquisition militated against the proper farming of the land in question.

asked the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food if he will make a statement on the future of the Potato Marketing Board.

asked the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food what is the position concerning the development of a potato régime within the common agricultural policy.

Proposals for an EEC régime for potatoes have been under discussion in Brussels since early in 1976. Our objective is to achieve a cost-effective solution satisfactory to both producers and consumers. The producer interests have recently published proposals for price stabilisation arrangements which we regard, in principle, as providing a satisfactory basis for the United Kingdom in the longer term, subject to further consideration of their financial implications. These proposals envisage a continuing need for a central marketing authority such as the Potato Marketing Board in Great Britain and we hope they can be accommodated within an acceptable EEC régime.

Does my right hon. Friend accept that the disappearance of the Potato Marketing Board, like other marketing boards, would be an unmitigated disaster for both producers and consumers and that it would be one of the most unpleasant consequences of going into the EEC? Will he assure the House that if these proposals go ahead the Government will make sufficient funds available to ensure that they do not founder for lack of cash?

I remind my hon. Friend that we said that the guarantee for this this year would continue. The long-term future of the Potato Marketing Board will depend on the part that it will play in an effective EEC régime. It is important to maintain the essential functions of the Board to protect both the producer and the consumer.

Is the Minister aware that farmers generally aim to make their cropping arrangements for the following season by the end of November in respect of the purchase of seed potatoes, fertilisers and the setting of acreages, and that the uncertainty that prevails at the moment is bad from the point of view of next season's potato production? When will that uncertainty be ended?

There is uncertainty in a number of commodities in agriculture, as we all know. The right hon. and learned Gentleman, in all fair-mindedness, will recognise that my right hon. Friends did not play any part in the make-up of the transitional arrangements that are responsible for this situation.

Notwithstanding the negotiations and the last answer, will the Minister take steps to ensure that prices are given to our farmers in good time for next season's planting? Does he realise that otherwise there could be a shortfall due to this considerable uncertainty?

We certainly understand the difficulties, and we shall do our best to help farmers. These matters will feature in the price review which is now under way.

asked the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food how many horses and ponies were exported live to Denmark in the period 1st January 1977 to 1st July 1977.

A total of 70 horses and ponies were exported to Denmark during this period.

Is the hon. Gentleman aware that there is a great deal of strong public feeling about the export of animals on the hoof for slaughter? When does he expect his departmental inquiry to report? Does he agree that the minimum levels laid down in 1973 for the export of horses are now completely out of date, because values have changed considerably?

I cannot agree with the hon. Gentleman on the latter point. I have looked at this matter again. Because horse prices were so high when these values were fixed in 1973, they are still effectively preventing the export of horses for slaughter.

Is my hon. Friend aware that the export of live animals for slaughter over the last 10 years has got worse, not better? I suggest that the safeguards are entirely inadequate and that something must be done in response to the public outcry against this bad traffic.

There have been some improvements in the European context. The export of live animals from this country is carried out under much more restrictive arrangements than was previously the case. It was in response to the real concern expressed by my hon. Friend that my right hon. Friend set up the present inquiry.

asked the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food whether he will make a statement about his visit to Australia.

I paid an official visit to Australia in August and September at the invitation of the Australian Government. I had an opportunity to see something of Australian agriculture at first hand and to have talks with Australian Ministers. We were able to discuss many problems of mutual interest.

Does the right hon. Gentleman recall that when the Prime Minister of Australia came to this country in the summer he said that no less than one-third of dairy farmers in Australia had been driven out of business because of our entry into the EEC and that no less than 80,000 head of beef cattle had been shot and their carcases destroyed because they could not gain access to these markets? On his visit to Australia, did the Minister glean any evidence that would lead him to the view that we might be able to get some of this food in future if we lowered import duties and levies?

I certainly saw that in the Commonwealth of Australia there was still available a supply of various kinds of food which this country had been traditionally accustomed to receive. Part of the Australians' complaint, if I read it correctly, was that while they knew that our going into the EEC might reduce their market, the fact was that export restitutions on EEC foodstuffs going out of the Community tended to destroy what other markets they might have. I am sure that our policy of trying to get greater liberalisation for imports of food from temperate climates — particularly from our old Commonwealth partners—in the multinational trade negotiations ought to play its part.

Did the Minister have talks about the problems of sheepmeat imports from Australia? Is he in a position to tell the House what might happen next year with regard to the possibility of new arrangements for the trade in sheepmeat between third countries and Community countries? Will he make a statement to the House now?

As the hon. Gentleman knows, there is as yet no proposal from the Commission that we are in a position to discuss with a view to obtaining a sheepmeat régime for the future. Such a proposal will no doubt be put before us fairly soon. There is one basic point to be extracted from the hon. Gentleman's question on which I hope the whole House will agree—namely, the absolute necessity of safeguarding the entry of New Zealand sheepmeat.

asked the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food what recent representations he has received on behalf of the British pigmeat industry; and what reply he has given to such representations.

There have been continuing discussions with the National Farmers Union in the context of the annual review. I have met representatives of the Bacon and Meat Manufacturers Association and have urged them to support me in my representations to the Commission on the unfair way monetary compensatory amounts are calculated in this sector.

Is the Minister aware that bacon curers are currently losing about £4 per bacon pig cured and that that is not in anyone's interest, least of all the long-term interest of the British housewife?

I do not know the exact figure, but the economic position of bacon curers is bad. I should not have thought that it was in the interests of the economics of the country as a whole, either, and that is all the more reason why we should press on with trying to obtain a change in the calculation of the MCAs. As I said in answer to an earlier question, we now have the French and the Italians with us on that matter.

As the contraction of the meat manufacturing and bacon curing industries will cause widespread unemployment in those industries, will my right hon. Friend agree to co-ordinate the opposition in the EEC to the present system of MCAs? I understand that both France and Italy are in a position similar to ours. Will he therefore try to coordinate this opposition to force the Common Market Ministers, at their December meeting, to alter the MCA set-up?

The question will certainly come up at the December meeting. The House need have no fear of that at all. It is right that not only the Government but the industry should now be coordinating their efforts.

asked the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food if he will take steps to ban the use of snares.

My right hon. Friend the Minister has no powers to do so; but in its advisory work on control of pests, my Department is at all times concerned to prevent avoidable suffering caused by snares, or unintended risks to other creatures.

Who does have the power to ban the use of snares?

Parliament would have to give the Government such powers, but I can assure the hon. Lady that we recognise that this is a form of pest control which should be used only in very exceptional circumstances. The problem is that in some cases there are no satisfactory alternatives.

asked the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food what further steps he proposes to take for easier access into the United Kingdom for efficiently produced foodstuffs from outside the EEC in accordance with the resolution of the House of 16th March 1977.

I refer the hon. Member to the section on the reform of the common agricultural policy in the letter of 30th September 1977 from my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister to the General Secretary of the Labour Party, copies of which are available in the Library of the House.

Following on the principle enunciated earlier by my hon. Friends the Members for Uxbridge (Mr. Shersby) and Dorset, West (Mr. Spicer)—who have now seen the light about the folly of the CAP, albeit only with regard to mandarin oranges—can the Minister explain why in the case of hard wheat, which is available in plentiful supply on the world market at £75 a ton and which is not produced in the Common Market, we have to pay £37 a ton import duty, which can only put up the price of bread in this country?

There are a number of requirements of the CAP that we shall have to work on. I do not think it can be done immediately. I say that quite clearly. It will be done over a period of a few years. The question raised by the hon. Gentleman is undoubtedly one of the factors that we shall have to deal with. It is a very important one indeed.

Can my right hon. Friend confirm the report that large quantities of the butter which was sold cheap to the Soviet Union have now been sold back to Italy at a large profit to the Soviet Union?

I cannot confirm the report, because it is being investigated and no one yet knows the truth of it, but the fact is that the real sin lies in exporting butter at 17p a pound, or whatever it is, to Eastern Europe when many people within the Community would like cheap butter. It was for that reason that I got the butter subsidy.

That is not the real sin. The real sin was going in.

asked the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food what action has been taken to implement the O'Brien Committee Report on the Export of Live Animals for Slaughter.

asked the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food when he expects to conclude his review of the export of live animals from the United Kingdom.

The main recommendations of this report were that a permanent ban on the export of animals for slaughter was not justified and that the animals' best protection lay in the introduction of common European welfare regulations. The Government, with the approval of the House, decided in January 1975 that sufficient progres had been made in Europe and in improving national surveillance and controls to justify the resumption of the trade to those few countries which had adequate welfare safeguards.

I do not thank my hon. Friend for that reply at all. Will he say why it is that after so long excuses are still being made for the continuation of this horrible traffic? Some of us are getting sick and tired of the excuses being made for not taking adequate and immediate action on this matter.

My hon. Friend may not be thankful for my reply, but he will at least welcome the fact that my right hon. Friend is setting up an inquiry into the matter. I am hopeful that the results that will come out of that inquiry will respond in some way to my hon. Friend's concern.

Will my hon. Friend give an asurance that when this review does become public we shall have a chance to debate it in the House?

My hon. Friend will recognise that that is a matter for the Leader of the House, but of course there will be a great deal of interest in the outcome of this review.

Can the Minister say how many prosecutions there have been for breaches of the regulations on the export of animals? Is he satisfied that those who are responsible have upheld the regulations and are doing so properly?

The hon. Gentleman would be well advised to await the outcome of the review, when we shall be able to bring all this information together.

asked the Prime Minister if he will pay an official visit to Garston.

I have at present no plans to do so.

Is my right hon. Friend aware that if he visited my constituency he would discover the resentment and bitterness expressed not only by firemen but by many of my constituents who support the legitimate demands of the firemen? Many of us on the Government side of the House feel that a settlement is not only possible but is now becoming an urgent necessity.

I would expect to find some bitterness. Indeed, I have detected it myself when I have been picketed or demonstrated against by firemen in many parts of the country. But I hope that my hon. Friend will tell his constituents that there will be equal bitterness and resentment or even greater bitterness and resentment, if, as a result of settlements which spread through the economy, we were to have much higher unemployment, much higher prices and a return to the inflation of two years ago.

If the Prime Minister cannot go to Garston will he go to Bootle and tell the firemen there that he disapproves entirely of their action in picketing the accommodation of the soldiers who are employed fighting fires in Liverpool and who are paid considerably less money than are the firmen?

The Fire Brigades Union national executive has indicated to all its members that it does not wish picketing to take place in the places where soldiers are.

They are picketing in Bootle.

As the hon. Gentleman does not seem to be up to date with the situation, I can tell him that the local Fire Brigades Union has withdrawn its pickets from that area. Perhaps the hon. Gentleman will make the appropriate correction.

On the subject of inflation, how can my right hon. Friend persist in his arguments in view of the high level of unemployment throughout the Western world and also in Britain? How can he say that inflation is still fuelled by excessive demand? Would it not be better to have higher wage awards in order to increase demand and thereby reduce unemployment?

My hon. Friend is putting words into my mouth. I did not say that excessive demand was the cause of this at all. What I am saying, and what is not sufficiently appreciated, is that especially in manufacturing industry, on which we depend so much, the level of comparative wage settlements is of very great importance for competitive purposes. In the United States today settlements are taking place at 8 per cent., in Japan they are 8·8 per cent., in the Federal Republic 7 per cent., and in France 12·4 per cent. Therefore, 10 per cent. settlements in this country are by no means out of the way. We shall lose our competitive position and create greater unemployment unless this is fuly recognised. My hon. Friend would be doing a far greater service if she were to put this across to her constituents.

How can the Prime Minister expect to have the support of the country in pursuing his policies when he cannot even control his own Back Benchers?

With regard to my hon. Friend the Member for Sheffield, Brightside (Miss Maynard) I have always proceeded on the basis that the Lord loveth whom he chasteneth. On the whole, I think that she prefers me to the right hon. Gentleman.

asked the Prime Minister what advice or instructions he as Prime Minister has given concerning the publication of newspaper articles by members of his Government.

Ministers are not debarred from contributing to a newspaper on occasion for the purpose of supplementing other means of informing the public about the work of their Department.

Was the Prime Minister told that I let his office know, in order to enable him to compose an unambiguous answer, that this question arose from an article in The Guardian by the Under-Secretary of State for Employment? In this article the Under-Secretary opposed any return to free collective bargaining. In view of the article, and the reported remarks of the Chancellor of the Exchequer, is the Prime Minister still committed to free, unfettered collective pay bargaining?

I was very grateful to the hon. Member for telephoning my office this morning, although somehow I do not think he did so in order to help me. I understand that this article, or what has now been turned into an article, was a speech that my hon. Friend made to his constituency Labour Party general management committee. Even Ministers are entitled to talk about these matters to their constituency parties.

"no real advances are possible without TUC backing and direct involvement".

If there is no justice in collective bargaining, will the Prime Minister publish an article explaining what justice there is in a pay policy that discriminates against the most vulnerable workers in the public service, such as the firemen, or those in the private sector who are most susceptible to Government sanctions, and leaves the most powerful workers alone and unscathed? Is it not time now to end this anomalous and iniquitous policy—

Come to the point.

I am not sure that my hon. Friend is not reinforcing my view about the difficulties, weaknesses, ills and evils associated with the present system. Its advantages—the main advantage is one that I wish to see the trade union leaders practise this year—lie in moderate wage claims. They do not have to claim excessive increases. In future there will be public discussion, and the Chancellor also is entitled to a little thinking about one of the major problems facing this country at present. We might have a little more thinking from the Opposition Benches on this matter. Their total lack of policy on such things was exposed in the Financial Times yesterday.

Will the Prime Minister say whether he agrees with the Chancellor's thinking? If Ministers are advocating a phase 4 pay policy, and if the Chancellor is actually suggesting it, unless the Prime Minister repudiates it the House has no alternative but to presume that this is now the pay policy of this Government.

The right hon. Member for Cambridgeshire (Mr. Pym) is doing very well in his capacity as a substitute. I am afraid that I simply will not be pinned down by the right hon. Member or by anybody else on what future pay settlements will be in the autumn of 1978. I have enough to do to get through the autumn of 1977 first. However, in relation to next year, I can say that if we have moderate settlements to look forward to—and we already have some in a number of areas—we can be certain that the retail price index will be so much lower next year that there will not be the same incentive to claim exceptional wage increases. There is no reason for the right hon. Gentleman to conclude that any decisions will be taken yet, or that there are likely to be any about the future of pay policy in the winter of 1978. I say that so that I can spare the hon. Member for Cornwall, North (Mr. Pardoe) his supplementary before he asks it.

asked the Prime Minister if he will list his engagements for 1st December.

This morning I presided at a meeting of the Cabinet. I also met Governer Brown of California. In addition to my duties in this House, I shall be holding further meetings with ministerial colleagues and others.

Will the Prime Minister have another go at clearing up the very messy situation left after the Chancellor talked with the Manifesto Group last night? If the Prime Minister does not like free collective bargaining, as he has told us today, will he continue with what Mr. Gormley calls "the most involuntary voluntary policy"?

The guidelines were published in the White Paper last July, and that is what we are adhering to. I shall not condemn anyone in this House—not the Chancellor nor the Under-Secretary for Employment, not even the hon. Member for Chingford (Mr. Tebbit)—[Interruption.] Perhaps I shall exempt him, after all—for trying to think ahead about the way in which we can get a rational approach to wages in this country without having excessive settlements that are likely to lead to inflation.

The Prime Minister may rest assured that I was not going to ask him about phase 4, because I am much more concerned about phase 3. Will he accept that if the present rate of wage settlements in the private sector continues as for the remaining part of phase 3 up to July 1977, the rate of price increases will rise very rapidly in the second half of 1978? What is he doing to enforce the guidelines in the private sector?

I do not think that we can draw that conclusion. I believe that only 3 per cent. of wage earners in this country have made settlements. Many are waiting to see what happens. I was told yesterday and the House will have read about what I million local authority wage earners were saying about a current dispute. A great many people are waiting. It is not right to suggest that there will be a great excess. Nobody can say that, when such a small proportion have settled. It is the Government's responsibility, within budgetary limits and in other ways, to try to prevent people in the private sector from saying that they did it because the Government did it.

Will the Prime Minister take the opportunity of having a word with the German Minister of Labour who is visiting London this week and others like him, such as the right hon. Member for Leeds, North-East (Sir K. Joseph), who are implacably opposed to the temporary employment subsidy? The Prime Minister should tell them that Britain intends to continue with the TES because of its importance to the textile and clothing industry.

There is no doubt that in the middle of a world recession it would be absolutely idiotic to follow the suggestions of the right hon. Member for Leeds, North-East (Sir K. Joseph) who says that all rescues and subsidies are harmful. I have never heard a more stupid expression in the 33 years that I have been in this House.

In view of the motion on the Order Paper by the hon. Member for Ormskirk (Mr. Kilroy-Silk) and other Labour Members about the Government's sanctions policy, and their attack upon it, will the Prime Minister seek from the House a legal basis for his 10 per cent. pay policy and for his sanctions, neither of which have such a legal basis?

The answer in both cases is "No".

Why do the Government not suggest an institution such as the National Board for Prices and Incomes to operate alongside their voluntary pay policy?

I think that the experience of the Prices and Incomes Board in the past shows all too clearly that this kind of institution cannot operate without the full consent and support of those who intend to control or take part in it. That is why I have always insisted that whatever the difficulties in a democratic society like ours, we shall not succeed without the support of the trade unions in these matters. That is why my efforts at the moment have been bent on winning public and trade union opinion to our side. What is more, we are holding it remarkably well.

Originally the Government's guideline were 6 per cent. on wage rates and 10 per cent. on earnings. Are they now 10 per cent. on wage rates and 15 per cent. on earnings?

No, Sir. The Government's original guidelines were 10 per cent. on national earnings, and settlements well within single figures. We would like to retain that situation.