asked the Secretary of State for Wales what is his forecast of the percentage fall in the number of school pupils between 1980–81 and 1983–84 in Wales; what is his forecast of surplus school places by 1986 as a result of falling pupil numbers; and if he will give details by counties and areas of counties.
The Government's expenditure plans, as outlined in Cmnd 8175, assume that the number of pupils in maintained nursery, primary and secondary schools will fall by around 8 per cent. between 1980–81 and 1983–84. The projected fall in the number of pupils aged 5 and over for each local education authority in Wales is shown as follows:
Projected percentage fall in pupils aged 5 years and over
* Full-time equivalents.
A study of school building published by the Department of Education and Science and the Welsh Office in 1977 estimated that between 1975, when the school population peaked and 1986 the number of places in Wales made surplus by falling pupil numbers would be 135,000. Separate figures for local authorities are not available.