asked the Secretary of State for Scotland what are the best estimates of his Department of the number of (a) 3 and (b) 4-year-olds in each school year for 1982–83 to 1988–89.

The latest—1979 based—official population projections produced by the Registrar General, which relate to 30 June each year show the following:

(thousands)
	Age at 30 June
	3-year-old	4-year-old
1982	65·0	61·2
1983	66·3	64·8
1984	69·6	66·1
1985	72·0	69·4
1986	73·8	71·7
1987	75·9	73·6
1988	78·1	75·6
1989	80·0	77·8

New—1981 based—projections are now being prepared for publication next year. Projections for younger ages, which involve projecting the number of births in future years, are very speculative, but the new projection will incorporate lower fertility rate assumptions. Consequently the projected numbers of 3 and 4-year-olds will be substantially lower than in the 1979 based projection, possibly as much as 12 per cent. lower from 1986.