To ask the Secretary of State for Social Security what he estimates will be the increase in social security costs in the next year; and what is the breakdown of those costs between increases due to costs related to (a) unemployment and (b) other factors.

Expenditure on social security will be £55·6 billion in 1990–91, an increase of £3 billion on the estimated outturn for 1989–90, as shown in the Chancellor's Autumn Statement. However, the figure for 1990–91 excludes rent rebates in England and Wales, and the increase on a directly comparable basis is £5·6 billion. Of this increase, £0·2 billion is the result of a small change in the assumed level of unemployment, and £5·4 billion is due to other factors.