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Grants

Volume 164: debated on Monday 18 December 1989

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To ask the Secretary of State for Education and Science if he will provide estimates of the costs and savings, as per annex E of the White Paper, in respect of (a) net change in grant, (b) net change in benefits, (c) gross loan outlay, (d) loan repayments and (e) public sector borrowing requirement effect for each of the years from 1990 to 2027, as in annex E of Cmd. 520, on the basis that a 30 per cent. age participation rate is attained by 2015, showing the effects of (i) 80 per cent. take-up, (ii) 90 per cent. take-up and (iii) 100 per cent. take-up.

The Department does not currently project student numbers in higher education beyond the turn of the century.The following tables show annex E revised to take account of the increase in student numbers since Cm. 520 was published. The tables show the effect of take-up rates of 80 and 100 per cent., and of inflation at 3, 5 and 8 per cent.

Table (i)
Top-up loans costings
Revised student number projections
Costs and saving—3 per cent. inflation—80 per cent. take-up
United Kingdom(£ million, 1990 prices)
YearChange in grantChange in benefitsLoan outlayLoan repaymentsPSBR effect
19900-681780110
1991-24-692142118
1992-46-7024310118
1993-66-6926923110
1994-86-692944396
1995-105-693186877
1996-126-693479359
1997-149-7238411548
1998-174-7542613442
1999-199-7746415039
2000-221-7849716335
2001-240-7852218122

Year

Change in grant

Change in benefits

Loan outlay

Loan repayments

PSBR effect

2002-258-785452063
2003-275-78568225-11
2004-292-78591240-19
2005-309-78613251-26
2006-325-78634260-29
2007-340-78654264-29
2008-358-78669278-45
2009-358-78669303-70
2010-358-78669333-100
2011-358-78669358-125
2012-358-78669379-146
2013-358-78669401-168
2014-358-78669420-187
2015-358-78669436-203
2016-358-78669449-216
2017-358-78669461-227
2018-358-78669470-237
2019-358-78669477-244
2020-358-78669484-251
2021-358-78669492-258
2022-358-78669499-266
2023-358-78669503-270
2024-358-78669505-272
2025-358-78669507-274
2026-358-78669509-275
2027-358-78669510-276

Table (ii)

Top-up loans costings

Revised student number projections

Costs and saving 3 per cent. inflation 100 per cent. take-up

United Kingdom

(£ million, 1990 prices)

Year

Change in grant

Change in benefits

Loan outlay

Loan repayments

PSBR effect

19900-682220155
1991-24-692673170
1992-46-7030412176
1993-66-6933629172
1994-86-6936753159
1995-105-6939885139
1996-126-69434116123
1997-149-72480144115
1998-174-75532168115
1999-199-77581187117
2000-221-78621204118
2001-240-78652226108
2002-258-7868225788
2003-275-7871128275
2004-292-7873929968
2005-309-7876631465
2006-325-7879232564
2007-340-7881833169
2008-358-7883634753
2009-358-7883637921
2010-358-78836416-16
2011-358-78836448-48
2012-358-78836474-73
2013-358-78836501-101
2014-358-78836525-124
2015-358-78836545-144
2016-358-78836561-161
2017-358-78836576-175
2018-358-78836588-187
2019-358-78836596-196
2020-358-78836605-205
2021-358-78836615-214
2022-358-78836623-223
2023-358-78836629-229
2024-358-78836632-231
2025-358-78836634-233
2026-358-78836636-235
2027-358-78836637-237

Table (iii)

Top-up loans costings

Revised student number projections

Costs and saving 5 per cent. inflation 80 per cent. take-up

United Kingdom

(£ million, 1990 prices)

Year

Change in grant

Change in benefits

Loan outlay

Loan repayments

PSBR effect

19900-681780110
1991-24-692142118
1992-60-7026110122
1993-93-6930423119
1994-124-6934344107
1995-153-693817189
1996-184-694249972
1997-218-7247512561
1998-256-7553314954
1999-291-7758617048
2000-323-7863118941
2001-348-7866421425
2002-359-78669246-14
2003-359-78669273-41
2004-359-78669293-61
2005-359-78669308-76
2006-359-78669318-86
2007-359-78669322-90
2008-359-78669334-102
2009-359-78669360-128
2010-359-78669390-158
2011-359-78669413-181
2012-359-78669429-197
2013-359-78669446-214
2014-359-78669459-227
2015-359-78669469-237
2016-359-78669476-244
2017-359-78669483-251
2018-359-78669488-256
2019-359-78669491-259
2020-359-78669496-264
2021-359-78669502-270
2022-359-78669508-276
2023-359-78669511-279
2024-359-78669512-280
2025-359-78669512-280
2026-359-78669512-280
2027-359-78669512-280

Table (iv)

Top-up loans costings

Revised student number projections

Costs and saving 5 per cent. inflation 100 per cent. take-up

United Kingdom

(£ million, 1990 prices)

Year

Change in grant

Change in benefits

Loan outlay

Loan repayments

PSBR effect

19900-662220155
1991-24-692673170
1992-60-7032712185
1993-93-6937929189
1994-124-6942955182
1995-153-6947789167
1996-184-69530124153
1997-218-72594156148
1998-256-75666186150
1999-291-77733212152
2000-323-78783236152
2001-348-78831267137
2002-359-7883630891
2003-359-7883634158
2004-359-7883636633
2005-359-7883638514
2006-359-788363991
2007-359-78836402-3
2008-359-78836419-19
2009-359-78836450-51
2010-359-78836487-88
2011-359-78836516-117

Year

Change in grant

Change in benefits

Loan outlay

Loan repayments

PSBR effect

2012-359-78836537-137
2013-359-78836558-159
2014-359-78836574-175
2015-359-78836586-187
2016-359-78836595-196
2017-359-78836604-205
2018-359-78836610-211
2019-359-78836614-215
2020-359-78836619-220
2021-359-78836627-228
2022-359-78836635-235
2023-359-78836639-240
2024-359-78836639-240
2025-359-78836640-241
2026-359-78836640-241
2027-359-78836640-241

Table (v)

Top-up loans costings

Revised student number projections

Costs and saving 8 per cent. inflation 80 per cent. take-up

United Kingdom

(£ million, 1990 prices)

Year

Change in grant

Change in benefits

Loan outlay

Loan repayments

PSBR effect

19900-681780110
1991-24-692142118
1992-79-7028710129
1993-129-6935223130
1994-175-6941145122
1995-217-6946675105
1996-260-6952510788
1997-306-7259213975
1998-343-7563916953
1999-353-7765919632
2000-359-7866922210
2001-359-78669252-20
2002-359-78669291-88
2003-359-78669320-88
2004-359-78669339-107
2005-359-78669350-119
2006-359-78669355-123
2007-359-78669351-119
2008-359-78669357-125
2009-359-78669379-148
2010-359-78669406-175
2011-359-78669426-195
2012-359-78669439-208
2013-359-78669454-223
2014-359-78669466-234
2015-359-78669474-243
2016-359-78669481-249
2017-359-78669487-255
2018-359-78669491-259
2019-359-78669493-261
2020-359-78669497-265
2021-359-78669503-271
2022-359-78669509-277
2023-359-78669512-280
2024-359-78669512-280
2025-359-78669512-280
2026-359-78669512-280
2027-359-78669512-280

Table (vi)

Top-up loans costings

Revised student number projections

Costs and saving 8 per cent. inflation 100 per cent. take-up

United Kingdom

(£ million, 1990 prices)

Year

Change in grant

Change in benefits

Loan outlay

Loan repayments

PSBR effect

19900-682220155
1991-24-692673170
1992-79-7035912198
1993-129-6944029212
1994-175-6951357213
1995-217-6958294203
1996-260-69656134192
1997-306-72740173189
1998-343-75798211170
1999-353-77823245147
2000-359-78836277122
2001-359-7883631584
2002-359-7883636336
2003-359-78836400-1
2004-359-78836423-24
2005-359-78836438-39
2006-359-78836443-44
2007-359-78836438-39
2008-359-78836447-47
2009-359-78836474-75
2010-359-78836508-109
2011-359-78836533-134
2012-359-78836549-150
2013-359-78836568-169
2014-359-78836582-183
2015-359-78836593-194
2016-359-78836601-202
2017-359-78836608-209
2018-359-78836613-214
2019-359-78836616-217
2020-359-78836621-222
2021-359-78836629-229
2022-359-78836636-237
2023-359-78836640-241
2024-359-78836640-241
2025-359-78836640-241
2026-359-78836640-241
2027-359-78836640-241