To ask the Secretary of State for Health what demographic and social changes were taken into account in his Department's calculation of the numbers of elderly persons likely to need local authority support to live in residential homes after 1991.

It will of course be for local authorities to decide how many elderly people should receive residential care with their support in future years. Each year the local authority associations will provide the Department with estimates of the number of people whom they consider are likely to receive such care, taking into account demographic and other factors and those estimates will be taken into account by the Government in determining the level of revenue support grant to local authorities.