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Volume 175: debated on Monday 2 July 1990

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To ask the Secretary of State for Health what is his estimate of the total number of people who have been infected with HIV.

The latest estimate of the total number of people who have been infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in England and Wales was published by the Public Health Laboratory Service in January 1990 as a supplement to the communicable disease report. In this report, "Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome in England and Wales to end 1993" (the Day report), it was estimated that there were between 12,250 and 26,400 HIV-infected people in England and Wales at the end of 1988.A separate group is currently preparing new estimates of short-term predictions of HIV incidence and prevalence estimates of the numbers of AIDS cases in Scotland as a revision of the earlier report of national working party on health service implications of HIV infection (the Tayler report). Copies of both the Day and Tayler reports are available in the Library.Reported incidence in Northern Ireland is too low to make accurate estimates of the likely spread of HIV infection.Results from the HIV prevalence monitoring programme using the unlinked anonymous technique will help to reduce uncertainty in these estimates.