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Road Planning

Volume 178: debated on Thursday 25 October 1990

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To ask the Secretary of State for Scotland if he will list for the 16 schemes in Scotland, identified by the National Audit Office as having a negative cost benefit analysis in its report of 27 October 1988 "Department of Transport, Scottish Development Department and Welsh Office: Road Planning" (a) location and name of each individual project, (b) length of road, (c) date of decision to build and date of completion, (d) capital cost, both estimated and outturn, (e) number of vehicles per day estimated, each way, (f) number of vehicles per day from recent census data, (g) the details of the negative economic appraisal or net present value and (h) in respect of the A74 only, estimated capital value cost and NPV for two-lane and three-lane motorway.

The information requested is given in the following two tables. Table 1 refers to the 16 schemes identified in the NAO report of 27 October 1988 as having a negative net present value. The originally predicted traffic flows for 1989 were based on the then current national growth projections. Actual traffic growth has generally been higher than predicted at that time.Table 2 gives the most recent budgetary estimates of costs and net present values for construction of the M 74 between Millbank and Gretna.

Scheme name

Region

Length kms

Contract let date

Completion date

Cost £ million1

NPV

Originally predicted traffic flows for 1989 (annual average daily traffic)

Actual traffic flows for 1989 (annual average daily traffic)

Estimated Outturn

A94Scotston-CandyGrampian8·5April 1983July 19855·57·0-2·757

27,700

13,100
A94Laurencekirk BypassGrampian7·8February 1984May 19856·07·9-1,745

27,100

10,400
A92/A94Stonehaven BypassGrampian9·7December 1982November 198410·114·5-5,362

27,700

13,100
A82Eos Eonan-Derrydarroch BridgesCentral2·6April 1981December 19821·52·1-0·8131,9002,300
A82Carnoch-Craigrannoch IHighland2·9December 1981October 19831·61·7-0·7722,5002,200
A82Carnoch-Craigrannoch IIHighland1·2March 1983October 19841·41·7-1·0712,5002,200
A835Silverbridge-GorstanHighland3·2May 1981December 19822·42·9-0·5278001,200
A9Auchterarder/Aberuthven BypassTayside8·2January 1982October 19835·97·5-1·64810,00014,100
A9Dalreoch-BurnsideTayside6·3June 1984October 19868·49·4-0·6839,70014,300
A929Tealing-TarbraxTayside5·6November 1983July 19856·06·4-0·720

29,800

13,300
A972Kingsway IIITayside2·5August 1984June 19862·63·0-0·203

211,800

18,200
A94Balnabreich-St. Ann'sTayside2·8May 1981July 19821·92·1-0·927

27,400

12,800

1 Tender letting stage estimate of total scheme cost.

2 Includes an estimate for traffic re-routed as the result of the detrunking of the A92 Dundee-Stonehaven (coastal route).

Table 2

Motorway design standard

Cost £m (September 1990)

NPV (mid-1988 prices)

Dual 3 lane412127
Dual 2 lane35040

Note: All costs exclude VAT