To ask the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food what information he has concerning the market value of beef cattle coming from farms where bovine spongiform encephalopathy has been confirmed.

None.

To ask the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food what is his Department's latest forecast for the future spread of bovine spongiform encephalopathy; and if he will make a statement on the level of reporting of BSE cases.

At present, about 350 suspect cases of BSE are being reported each week. The future course of the disease cannot be predicted precisely, but an

assessment of the latest epidemiological evidence suggests that the number of cases will continue to rise until some time in 1992, after which, provided there is no direct cattle-to-cattle transmission, it will start to fall. The expected increase does not represent continued spread of the disease, but is a result of the exposure of cattle to the agent through the consumption of ruminant-based protein rations prior to the imposition of the feed ban in July 1988 and the long incubation period before clinical disease manifests itself.Since BSE was made a notifiable disease in June 1988 the number of suspected cases arising each week has increased fairly steadily. Within this overall upward trend, a fairly consistent pattern of reporting has become apparent with numbers increasing in spring and autumn. Close surveillance at markets and abattoirs has not revealed any deliberate attempts to evade the legal requirement to report suspect cases of BSE.

To ask the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food if he will list the number of confirmed cases of BSE by county in the months to (a) 17 July, (b) 17 August, (c) 17 September, (d) 17 October and (e) 17 November.

[holding answer 21 November 1990]: The number of cases confirmed on a monthly basis simply reflects the number of positive findings of BSE recorded as a result of laboratory investigation in the period concerned. As processing in the laboratory can take several weeks, these figures do not therefore accurately reflect developments in the number of new cases arising or reported.The information for Great Britain is as follows: