To ask the Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs what is his estimate of the number of managerial and professional persons resident in Hong Kong in each of the past five years; and if he will make a statement on his current assessment of the likelihood of a drain of managerial and professional persons from Hong Kong.

[holding answer 20 February 1991]: The Hong Kong Government estimate that the number of managerial and professional people (including administrative and technical personnel) resident in Hong Kong in each of the past five years was:

	Number
1986	262,000
1987	279,000
1988	302,000
1989	318,000
1990	328,000

The Hong Kong Government estimate that the number of emigrants who fall into these categories in each of the past five years was as follows:

	Number
1986	2,600
1987	7,400
1988	11,200
1989	9,800
1990	14,500

The Hong Kong Government believe that, despite loss through emigration, the number of highly educated and professionally skilled persons in Hong Kong should not

fall in future years if the present trend of local young people graduating overseas continues. Furthermore, Hong Kong's own tertiary institutions are rapidly expanding their output of new graduates. The figures are:

	Number
1986	2,800
1987	3,000
1988	3,600
1989	4,300
1990	5,000

It is estimated that by 1996 Hong Kong will be producing over 17,000 new first degree graduates per year.