To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he will list the underlying rate of inflation and minimum lending rate for each of the last 150 months, setting out in each case the difference showing whether it is positive or negative, also marking each month when the economy was in recession with the letter R.
[holding answer 12 November 1991]: There is no single measure of underlying inflation. For the purposes of this answer, it is defined as the RPI less mortgage interest payments. Since 1981 a minimum lending rate has been in operation for only two days. Instead three-month inter-bank rates have been used. There is no agreed definition of recession. For the purposes of this answer, it is defined as occurring when GDP falls for two or more consecutive quarters. GDP figures are available only quarterly, so it is not possible to identify when the economy is in recession month by month. Rs have been placed beside those months which make up recessionary quarters. The information is in the following table:
Average 3 month interbank rate (i) | RPI excluding mips (ii) | Difference (iii) | |
1979 | |||
April | 11·69 | 9·1 | 2·59 |
May | 11·82 | 9·3 | 2·52 |
Average 3 month interbank rate (i)
| RPI excluding mips (ii)
| Difference (iii)
| |
June | 13·12 | 10·2 | 2·92 |
July | 13·98 | 14·7 | -0·72 |
August | 14·12 | 15·0 | -0·88 |
September | 14·17 | 15·9 | -1·73 |
October | 14·12 | 16·6 | -2·48 |
November | 16·24 | 16·7 | -0·46 |
December | 16·81 | 16·9 | -0·09 |
1980
| |||
January | 17·16 | 17·4 | R -0·24 |
February | 17·77 | 17·9 | R -0·13 |
March | 18·11 | 18·6 | R -0·49 |
April | 17·64 | 20·6 | R -2·96 |
May | 17·05 | 20·8 | R -3·75 |
June | 16·77 | 20·0 | R -3·23 |
July | 15·88 | 15·8 | R 0·08 |
August | 16·53 | 15·2 | R 1·33 |
September | 16·00 | 14·7 | R 1·30 |
October | 15·98 | 14·3 | R 1·68 |
November | 15·84 | 14·2 | R 1·64 |
December | 14·73 | 13·9 | R 0·83 |
1981
| |||
January | 14·28 | 13·0 | R 1·28 |
February | 13·04 | 12·6 | R 0·44 |
March | 12·65 | 12·8 | R -0·15 |
April | 12·33 | 12·4 | -0·07 |
May | 12·40 | 12·2 | 0·20 |
June | 12·66 | 11·8 | 0·86 |
July | 13·79 | 11·4 | 2·39 |
August | 14·18 | 12·0 | 2·18 |
September | 14·78 | 11·9 | 2·88 |
October | 16·33 | 12·2 | 4·13 |
November | 15·06 | 12·1 | 2·96 |
December | 15·44 | 12·0 | 3·44 |
1982
| |||
January | 15·13 | 12·0 | 3·13 |
February | 14·48 | 10·6 | 3·88 |
March | 13·57 | 9·8 | 3·77 |
April | 13·77 | 9·1 | 4·67 |
May | 13·35 | 9·2 | 4·15 |
June | 13·00 | 8·8 | 4·20 |
July | 12·37 | 8·3 | 4·07 |
August | 11·11 | 7·6 | 3·51 |
September | 10·89 | 7·3 | 3·59 |
October | 9·79 | 7·0 | 2·79 |
November | 9·39 | 6·7 | 2·69 |
December | 10·62 | 6·6 | 4·02 |
1983
| |||
January | 11·21 | 6·0 | 5·21 |
February | 11·34 | 6·7 | 4·64 |
March | 10·98 | 6·0 | 4·98 |
April | 10·26 | 4·9 | 5·36 |
May | 10·26 | 4·5 | 5·76 |
June | 9·94 | 4·5 | 5·44 |
July | 9·89 | 4·7 | 5·19 |
August | 9·87 | 5·1 | 4·77 |
September | 9·69 | 5·2 | 4·49 |
October | 9·38 | 5·0 | 4·38 |
November | 9·30 | 4·9 | 4·40 |
December | 9·42 | 4·8 | 4·62 |
1984
| |||
January | 9·45 | 4·5 | 4·95 |
February | 9·38 | 4·5 | 4·88 |
March | 8·95 | 4·6 | 4·35 |
April | 8·88 | 4·9 | 3·98 |
May | 9·40 | 4·9 | 4·50 |
June | 9·45 | 4·9 | 4·55 |
July | 11·51 | 4·5 | 7·01 |
August | 11·07 | 4·3 | 6·77 |
September | 10·83 | 3·9 | 6·93 |
October | 10·67 | 4·2 | 6·47 |
Average 3 month inter-bank rate (i)
| RPI excluding mips (ii)
| Difference (iii)
| |
November | 9·93 | 4·1 | 5·83 |
December | 9·82 | 4·1 | 5·72 |
1985
| |||
January | 11·68 | 4·6 | 7·08 |
February | 13·76 | 4·6 | 9·16 |
March | 13·63 | 5·2 | 8·43 |
April | 12·76 | 5·3 | 7·46 |
May | 12·66 | 5·3 | 7·36 |
June | 12·44 | 5·3 | 7·14 |
July | 12·04 | 5·2 | 6·84 |
August | 11·50 | 5·3 | 6·20 |
September | 11·55 | 5·6 | 5·95 |
October | 11·55 | 5·2 | 6·35 |
November | 11·57 | 5·2 | 6·37 |
December | 11·76 | 5·1 | 6·66 |
1986
| |||
January | 12·83 | 4·9 | 7·93 |
February | 12·65 | 4·8 | 7·85 |
March | 11·72 | 4·0 | 7·72 |
April | 10·48 | 3·4 | 7·08 |
May | 10·22 | 3·1 | 7·12 |
June | 9·78 | 3·3 | 6·48 |
July | 9·96 | 3·2 | 6·76 |
August | 9·84 | 3·3 | 6·54 |
September | 10·12 | 3·4 | 6·72 |
October | 11·04 | 3·4 | 7·64 |
November | 11·17 | 3·3 | 7·87 |
December | 11·36 | 3·5 | 7·86 |
1987
| |||
January | 11·05 | 3·6 | 7·45 |
February | 10·86 | 3·7 | 7·16 |
March | 9·97 | 3·8 | 6·17 |
April | 9·80 | 3·6 | 6·20 |
May | 8·82 | 3·8 | 5·02 |
June | 8·90 | 3·5 | 5·40 |
July | 9·21 | 3·7 | 5·51 |
August | 10·04 | 3·7 | 6·34 |
September | 10·16 | 3·5 | 6·66 |
October | 9·98 | 3·9 | 6·08 |
November | 8·95 | 4·0 | 4·95 |
December | 8·77 | 4·0 | 4·77 |
1988
| |||
January | 8·97 | 3·7 | 5·27 |
February | 9·27 | 3·6 | 5·67 |
March | 8·89 | 3·8 | 5·09 |
April | 8·30 | 4·2 | 4·10 |
May | 8·03 | 4·4 | 3·63 |
June | 8·93 | 4·7 | 4·23 |
July | 10·55 | 5·0 | 5·55 |
August | 11·39 | 5·0 | 6·39 |
September | 12·15 | 5·2 | 6·95 |
October | 12·04 | 5·1 | 6·94 |
November | 12·31 | 5·1 | 7·21 |
December | 13·13 | 5·1 | 8·03 |
1989
| |||
January | 13·14 | 5·5 | 7·64 |
February | 13·02 | 5·7 | 7·32 |
March | 13·05 | 5·7 | 7·35 |
April | 13·13 | 5·9 | 7·23 |
May | 13·14 | 6·0 | 7·14 |
June | 14·15 | 5·9 | 8·25 |
July | 13·92 | 5·8 | 8·12 |
August | 13·85 | 5·7 | 8·15 |
September | 14·02 | 5·8 | 8·22 |
October | 15·02 | 6·1 | 8·92 |
November | 15·11 | 6·1 | 9·01 |
December | 15·12 | 6·1 | 9·02 |
1990
| |||
January | 15·16 | 6·1 | 9·06 |
Average 3 month inter-bank rate (i)
| RPI excluding mips (ii)
| Difference (iii)
| |
February | 15·11 | 6·2 | 8·91 |
March | 15·29 | 6·3 | 8·99 |
April | 15·21 | 7·9 | 7·31 |
May | 15·15 | 8·1 | 7·05 |
June | 14·97 | 8·2 | R 6·77 |
July | 14·95 | 8·3 | R 6·65 |
August | 15·00 | 9·1 | R 5·90 |
September | 14·91 | 9·5 | R 5·41 |
October | 14·03 | 9·5 | R 4·53 |
November | 13·64 | 9·2 | R 4·44 |
December | 13·80 | 9·0 | R 4·80 |
1991
| |||
January | 13·97 | 8·5 | R 5·47 |
February | 13·25 | 8·6 | R 4·65 |
March | 12·40 | 8·4 | R 4·00 |
April | 11·95 | 6·8 | R 5·15 |
May | 11·53 | 6·6 | R 4·93 |
June | 11·24 | 6·9 | R 4·34 |
July | 11·09 | 6·8 | * 4·29 |
August | 10·89 | 6·2 | * 4·69 |
September | 10·29 | 5·7 | * 4·59 |
(a) Column (iii) only shows difference between columns (i) and (ii), not the "real" interest rate as usually calculated. For this see OR 12 June 1991, cols. 549–554w. | |||
(b) *GDP figures only available until 1991 Q2. |
To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he will give the real interest rates in the United Kingdom and Germany for each of the last 60 months using as real rates the difference between MLR and the underlying rate of inflation.
[holding answer 12 November 1991]: Official interest rates, such as the MLR or the German discount rate, are not comparable across countries. International comparisons therefore generally use market interest rates; three-month inter-bank rates have been used in the table.There is no generally agreed definition of "underlying inflation". For Germany the table uses consumer price inflation excluding rent. For the United Kingdom the retail prices index excluding mortgage interest payments has been used.There is no single measure of real interest rates. They are most often calculated by deflating the interest rate by an appropriate measure of inflation, rather than from a simple difference between two rates. The table uses the method suggested in my hon. Friend's question.
United Kingdom 3 month interest rates less RPI excluding mips | German 3 month interest rates less CPI excluding rent | |
1986 | ||
January | 7·9 | 3·5 |
February | 7·9 | 3·9 |
March | 7·7 | 4·6 |
April | 7·1 | 4·9 |
May | 7·1 | 5·0 |
June | 6·4 | 5·0 |
July | 6·7 | 5·3 |
August | 6·4 | 5·3 |
September | 6·8 | 4·2 |
October | 7·7 | 5·7 |
November | 7·9 | 6·2 |
December | 7·9 | 6·4 |
1987 | ||
January | 7·5 | 5·8 |
United Kingdom 3 month interest rates less RPI excluding mips
| German 3 month interest rates less CPI excluding rent
| |
February | 7·2 | 5·0 |
March | 6·2 | 4·6 |
April | 6·2 | 4·2 |
May | 5·0 | 4·0 |
June | 5·4 | 3·9 |
July | 5·5 | 3·6 |
August | 6·3 | 3·4 |
September | 6·7 | 3·8 |
October | 6·1 | 4·1 |
November | 5·0 | 3·0 |
December | 4·9 | 1·9 |
1988
| ||
January | 5·3 | 2·7 |
February | 5·7 | 2·5 |
March | 5·1 | 2·5 |
April | 4·1 | 2·4 |
May | 3·6 | 2·5 |
June | 4·2 | 2·8 |
July | 5·6 | 3·9 |
August | 6·4 | 4·4 |
September | 7·0 | 3·7 |
October | 6·9 | 3·8 |
November | 7·2 | 3·5 |
December | 8·0 | 3·8 |
1989
| ||
January | 7·6 | 3·5 |
February | 7·3 | 4·1 |
March | 7·4 | 4·2 |
April | 7·2 | 3·6 |
May | 7·1 | 4·2 |
June | 8·3 | 4·2 |
July | 8·1 | 4·4 |
August | 8·2 | 4·3 |
September | 8·2 | 4·5 |
October | 8·9 | 5·0 |
November | 9·0 | 5·3 |
December | 9·0 | 5·0 |
1990
| ||
January | 9·1 | 5·6 |
February | 8·9 | 5·7 |
March | 9·0 | 5·9 |
April | 7·3 | 6·1 |
May | 7·1 | 6·2 |
June | 6·8 | 6·2 |
July | 6·6 | 6·0 |
August | 5·9 | 5·7 |
September | 5·4 | 5·6 |
October | 4·5 | 5·3 |
November | 4·4 | 6·0 |
December | 4·8 | 6·6 |
1991
| ||
January | 3·5 | 6·6 |
February | 4·7 | 6·5 |
March | 4·0 | 6·8 |
April | 5·2 | 6·6 |
May | 4·9 | 6·3 |
June | 4·3 | 5·8 |
July | 4·3 | 4·7 |
August | 4·7 | 5·2 |
September | 4·6 | 5·3 |