To ask the Secretary of State for the Home Department what estimates he has had made of the likely change in the number of juveniles sentenced to custody during the next five years. [81979]

Projections have been made of the number of young prisoners who it is expected will be either serving a custodial sentence or held on remand in all forms of secure accommodation. The projections are based on two possible scenarios:The assumption that the use of custody by the courts increases by 0.6 per cent. per year for males and 1 per cent. for females, which is in line with recent trends; and the assumption that, in addition to 1, there is an increase in average sentence length of 1.5 per cent. per year for males and 2 per cent. for females.The tables also allow for seasonal variations in each year.

Expected populations of prisoners aged under 18
	Remand	Sentenced
Assumption 1
1998–19991	900	1,800
1999–2000	1,000	1,700
2000–2001	1,000	1,800
2001–2002	800	2,000
2002–2002	700	2,100
2003–2004	700	2,100
2004–2005	700	2,200
Assumption 2
1998–19991	900	1,800
1999–2000	1,000	1,900
2000–2001	1,100	2,100
2001–2002	900	2,400
2002–2003	800	2,400
2003–2004	800	2,600
2004–2005	800	2,700
1Provisional

Actual outcomes will depend on the decisions of the courts. Other scenarios are possible. For further information on the methodology of the projections see "Projections of Long-Term Trends in the Prison Population to 2006", Home Office Statistical Bulletin 1/99, copies of which are in the Library.

To ask the Secretary of State for the Home Department what plans he has for housing juveniles within the Prison Service estate. [81976]

The initial composition of the Prison Service's new, distinct juvenile estate has now been finalised, following consultation with the Youth Justice Board. It will consist of the following establishments: Ashfield; Aylesbury; Brinsford; Castington; Feltham; Hollesley Bay; Huntercombe; Lancaster Farms; Onley; Portland; Stoke Heath; Thorn Cross; Werrington; and Wetherby. These establishments will be either juvenile-only or will contain juvenile units.The Prison Service also has a strategy for securing further improvements to the estate over the next three years.These changes will mean that all 15 to 17 year old boys will be held in separate, dedicated accommodation (other than in exceptional circumstances) in readiness for the introduction of the Detention and Training Order in April 2000.In relation to 15–17 year old girls, I refer the hon. Member to the reply my right hon. Friend the Home Secretary gave to my hon. Friend the Member for Shipley (Mr. Lesley) on 8 March 1999,