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Forecasting

Volume 406: debated on Friday 23 May 2003

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To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he will commission a technical review of the Treasury"s forecasting procedures. [115301]

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer whether the Pre Budget Report public finances projections for 2004–05 in respect of his Budget 2003 are based on the bottom of the forecast range for growth in each year of the projection period. [115468]

The public finance projections have been consistently based on the bottom end of the forecast range for GDP growth in each year of the projection period: there has been no departure from this practice for either the 2002 Pre-Budget Report or Budget 2003.

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer whether he will publish the technical studies upon which his growth forecasts are based. [115302]

The Government published a paper "Trend Growth: Recent Developments and Prospects", alongside the April 2002 Budget. This set out the Treasury"s latest assessment of the neutral rate of trend growth which is used to anchor the Government"s economic forecasts.