To ask the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions pursuant to his answer of 17 July 2003, Official Report, column 531W, to the hon. Member for Havant (Mr. Willetts), on contracted-out rebates, to what causes he ascribes the assumed reduction in the number of people receiving contracted-out rebates from 2001–02 to 2051–52. 
The projection reflects two main assumptions:
As the Green Paper and earlier answers made clear these are only illustrative assumptions made for the purpose of long-term financial projections and not firm predictions of future experience. The appropriateness of the assumptions will be reviewed as increased data on the number of individuals contracted-out become available.
1. A reduction in the membership of contracted-out personal pension schemes, as a result of the introduction of age-related rebates in April 1997; and 2. Changing membership of contracted-out occupational persion schemes, reflecting among other things, changing patterns of pension provision.
Government Actuary's Department