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Birth Rates

Volume 447: debated on Monday 12 June 2006

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what the latest birth rate per 1,000 women was to those aged (a) 19, (b) 18, (c) 17, (d) 16, (e) 15, (f) 14 and (g) under 14 years in the UK; and what forecast he has made for each of the next 20 years. (75628)

The information requested falls within the responsibility of the National Statistician, who has been asked to reply.

Letter from Karen Dunnell, dated 12 June 2006:

As the National Statistician I have been asked to reply to your question about the latest birth rate per 1,000 women to those aged (a) 19, (b) 18, (c) 17, (d) 16, (e) 15, (f) 14 and (g) under 14 years in the UK; and what forecast has been made for each of the next 20 years. (75628)

Birth rates by age for females aged under 20 are shown in Table 1. Figures relate to births that occurred in 2005. The birth rates are provisional, as they are calculated using the 2004-based population projections for 2005.

Because of the relatively small numbers of births to girls aged 14 and under, ONS only routinely reports birth rates for the age-group ‘15 and under’. In 2005, there were 1,092 births to girls aged 15, 210 births to girls aged 14, and 26 births to girls aged under 14.

Table 1: Births per 1,000 females at each single year of age below age 20,1 United Kingdom, 2005

Age

Births per 1,000 females

19

52.7

18

39.2

17

25.3

16

10.4

15 and under

3.5

1 Provisional

Assumptions about future birth rates are made as part of the national population projections. Birth rate assumptions for females are shown in Table 2, by single year of age for those aged 16 to 19 and for those aged 15 and under. Figures are for each year, from mid-2004 to mid-2005 (the first year of the projection), and for the next 20 years.

Table 2: Assumed mid-year to mid-year birth rates per 1,000 females at each age under 20, United Kingdom, 2004-05 to 2026-27

Age

19

18

17

16

15 and under

2004-05

53.0

41.2

25.7

10.6

3.6

2005-06

52.7

40.3

24.2

10.3

3.4

2006-07

51.6

39.3

22.9

10.1

3.3

2007-08

51.0

38.9

22.3

9.9

3.3

2008-09

50.9

38.7

22.0

9.9

3.2

2009-10

50.9

38.7

21.9

9.9

3.2

2010-11

50.8

38.7

21.9

9.8

3.2

2011-12

50.8

38.7

21.9

9.8

3.2

2012-13

50.8

38.7

21.8

9.8

3.2

2013-14

50.8

38.6

21.8

9.8

3.2

2014-15

50.8

38.6

21.8

9.8

3.2

2015-16

50.8

38.6

21.8

9.8

3.2

2016-17

50.8

38.6

21.8

9.8

3.2

2017-18

50.7

38.6

21.8

9.8

3.2

2018-19

50.7

38.6

21.8

9.8

3.2

2019-20

50.8

38.6

21.8

9.8

3.2

2020-21

50.8

38.6

21.7

9.8

3.2

2021-22

50.8

38.6

21.7

9.8

3.2

2022-23

50.8

38.6

21.7

9.8

3.2

2023-24

50.8

38.6

21.7

9.8

3.2

2024-25

50.8

38.6

21.7

9.8

3.2

2025-26

50.8

38.6

21.7

9.8

3.2

2026-27

50.8

38.6

21.7

9.8

3.2