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Retirement Age

Volume 448: debated on Thursday 6 July 2006

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, pursuant to the answer of 13 February 2006, Official Report, columns 1695-6W, on retirement age, if he will break down the estimated percentage probability by (a) female and (b) male workers; what assumptions have been used by the Government Actuary’s Department in relation to the impact of the announced changes in early retirement rights on staff turnover levels; and if he will place in the Library the supporting data for the answer produced by the Government Actuary’s Department. (82511)

Estimated probabilities that new entrants aged 20 will not remain in the scheme at normal retirement are in the following table.

Percentage of workers




IPS (E and W)1



NHSPS (E and W)



1 Includes all members who leave the scheme before normal retirement age, even those who subsequently rejoin and are members at normal retirement age.

These figures are based on the analysis of staff turnover in the Government Actuary’s Department’s latest actuarial valuations of the teachers’ pension scheme (England and Wales) and the national health service pension scheme (England and Wales), which are available in the Library.

The assumed rates of turnover are derived from an analysis of the actual turnover experienced in the past. Allowance has been made for the strong link between resignation rates and duration of employment. Levels of staff turnover may be different in the future. The introduction of new pension schemes for new entrants is one of many factors that will influence staff turnover; others include future economic conditions and the ease of mobility in the labour market. Given these uncertainties and the link between employment length and resignation no explicit allowance for the effect of introducing new public sector pension schemes was made in calculating the figures.