To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what population projections for the City of Newcastle upon Tyne for the years 2003 to 2010 are in use; on which years' data each projection was based; and what the mid-year estimate of the population was in each year between 2003 and 2005. (107334)

The information requested falls within the responsibility of the National Statistician who has been asked to reply.

Letter from Colin Mowl, dated 5 December 2006:

The National Statistician has been asked to reply to your question regarding what projections for the City of Newcastle upon Tyne for the years 2003 to 2010 are in use, on which years’ data each projection was based, and what the mid-year estimate of the population was in each year between 2003 and 2005. I am responding in her absence. (107334)

The Office for National Statistics produces subnational population projections for England approximately every two years. The current projections are 2004-based and were published on 12 October 2006. They start from the 2004 mid year estimate and project forward using local assumptions on births, deaths and migration derived from the five year reference period 1999 to 2004. They are consistent with the official 2004-based national population projections.

The previous set of projections were 2003-based. These were published in November 2004 and used assumptions derived from the reference period 1998 to 2003 to project forward the 2003 mid year estimate. Though these were superseded by the 2004-based projections they are still being used by some customers who haven’t yet incorporated the current set for timing reasons.

Table 1 shows the 2003-based and the 2004-based projected population for the City of Newcastle upon Tyne for the years 2003 to 2010. Table 2 shows the mid year estimate of the population in each year between 2003 and 2005.

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what the population was of Newcastle upon Tyne in (a) 2003-04, (b) 2004-05 and (c) 2005-06; and what population projections have been made by the Office for National Statistics for that city in each of the next three financial years. (107762)

The information requested falls within the responsibility of the National Statistician, who has been asked to reply.

Letter from Colin Mowl, dated 5 December 2006:

The National Statistician has been asked to reply to your recent Parliamentary Question asking what the population was for the City of Newcastle upon Tyne for the financial years (a) 2003-04, (b) 2004-05 and (c) 2005-06, and what the projected population is for the next three financial years. I am replying in her absence. (107762)

The attached table provides the population estimates in Newcastle upon Tyne for 2003, 2004 and 2005 and the projected population for 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009. The figures are estimates of the population at mid-year and are the latest available. The projections are based on the mid-2004 population estimates and as such are not consistent with the 2005 mid-year population estimates. The 2004-based projections are the latest available and they assume that local trends in fertility, mortality and migration over the reference period 2000 to 2004 will continue into the future.