(2) what the (a) value and (b) upper and lower confidence limit was of each of the underlying coefficients used in the calculation of the 2006 key stage 2 to 4 contextual value added score.
The coefficients were calculated on the full national dataset of approximately 600,000 pupils reaching the end of Key Stage 4 in 2006, taking account of their KS2 and KS4 attainment together with the individual pupil level characteristics collected in the Annual School Census in January 2006. The coefficient for a particular characteristic shows the average effect of that characteristic on pupil attainment, after taking account of each pupil’s prior attainment and all the other characteristics included in the model. The coefficients were derived using the package MLwiN using multi-level modelling techniques. Separate models were calculated for maintained mainstream schools, and for special schools.
The values and confidence limits of the coefficients for each of the models are as follows:
Coefficient Lower limit on Cl Upper limit on Cl Constant 132.315 107.53 157.07 Quadratic of KS2 Average Point Score 0.3876 0.38 0.40 KS2 fine grade average points score -5.523 -6.03 -5.01 KS2english -KS2 average point score fine grades 2.330 2.20 2.46 KS2maths -KS2 average point score fine grades 0.376 0.24 0.51 Does student have FSM? (no) 0.000 — — Does student have FSM? (yes) -25.122 -25.80 -24.44 Deprivation indicator—IDACI score -65.191 -66.54 -63.84 Has the student ever been in care at this school? (no) 0.000 — — Has the student ever been in care at this school? (yes) -31.236 -33.73 -28.75 Does student have SEN—Action Plus? -63.563 -64.35 -62.77 Does student have SEN—school action? -37.349 -38.00 -36.70 Pupil joined school after September Yr 10 -75.622 -76.94 -74.30 Pupil joined not in July/August/September yrs 7, 8, 9 -24.226 -25.06 -23.40 Male 0.000 — — Female 14.569 14.19 14.95 Age within academic year -14.036 -14.64 -13.44 First language: English or believed to be English 0.000 — — First language: Other or believed to be other (EAL) -12.458 -29.74 4.82 EAL* KS2APS 5.4708 4.06 6.88 EAL* Quadratic of KS2 APS -0.1584 -0.19 -0.13 Is the student White British? 0.000 — — Is the student White Irish? -1.402 -4.59 1.78 Is the student a White Irish traveller? -45.524 -61.55 -29.49 Is the student White Gypsy/Roma? -58.762 -69.80 -47.72 Is the student White other? 11.061 9.47 12.65 Is the student Mixed White/Black Caribbean? -2.348 -4.52 -0.17 Is the student Mixed White/Black African? 9.408 4.83 13.99 Is the student Mixed White/Asian? 9.266 6.32 12.21 Is the student any other Mixed ethnic group? 5.783 3.52 8.04 Is the student Indian? 24.419 22.73 26.11 Is the student Pakistani? 17.504 15.59 19.41 Is the student Bangladeshi? 23.814 20.84 26.78 Is the student any other Asian ethnic group? 27.163 24.31 30.01 Is the student Black Caribbean? 11.922 10.12 13.72 Is the student Black African? 28.622 26.42 30.82 Is the student any other Black ethnic group? 7.031 3.81 10.26 Is the student Chinese? 34.156 30.64 37.68 Is the student any other ethnic group? 22.169 19.36 24.98 Is the student in an unclassified ethnic group? -9.373 -10.70 -8.05 FSM* White British 0.000 — — FSM* Irish -3.9217 -11.78 3.94 FSM* Traveller of Irish heritage -32.9276 -58.53 -7.33 FSM* Gypsy/ Roma 27.8899 10.24 45.54 FSM* Any other white background 25.8494 22.12 29.58 FSM* White and Black Caribbean 11.3006 6.87 15.73 FSM* White and Black African 3.7395 -6.08 13.56 FSM* White and Asian 13.2769 5.43 21.13 FSM* Any other mixed background 6.7990 1.70 11.90 FSM* Indian 18.8529 15.07 22.63 FSM* Pakistani 21.0732 18.53 23.61 FSM* Bangladeshi 22.2634 18.51 26.01 FSM* Any other Asian background 24.2656 18.12 30.42 FSM* Caribbean 20.3238 16.71 23.93 FSM* Black African 19.9224 16.39 23.45 FSM* Any other black background 25.8815 19.62 32.14 FSM* Chinese 27.7773 18.41 37.15 FSM* Any other ethnic group 30.6513 25.92 35.38 FSM* Unclassified ethnic group 4.5587 1.01 8.10 KS2 average point score of cohort 2.490 1.81 3.17 KS2 standard deviation in cohort -5.526 -7.32 -3.73
Coefficient Lower limit on Cl Upper limit on Cl Constant -13.855 21.84 -49.54 Quadratic of KS2 Average Point Score 0.0825 0.17 0.00 KS2 fine grade average points score 2.535 6.17 -1.10 KS2english—KS2 average point score fine grades 0.885 1.60 0.17 KS2maths—KS2 average point score fine grades -1.246 -0.47 -2.03 Does student have FSM? (no) 0 — — Does student have FSM? (yes) 1.48 3.43 -0.47 Deprivation indicator—IDACI score -1.27 4.03 -6.57 Has the student ever been in care at this school? (no) 0 — — Has the student ever been in care at this school? (yes) 1.345 4.98 -2.29 Pupil joined school after Sept Yr 10 -24.333 -20.57 -28.09 Pupil joined not in Jul/Aug/Sept yrs 7, 8, 9 -3.523 -1.44 -5.60 Male 0 — — Female 0.105 2.00 -1.79 Age within academic year -3.804 -0.87 -6.73 First language: English or believed to be English 0 — — First language: Other or believed to be other 3.563 9.59 -2.47 Is the student White British? 0 — — Is the student White Irish? 0 — — Is the student a White Irish traveller? -8.642 -1.58 -15.70 Is the student White Gypsy/Roma? -8.642 -1.58 -15.70 Is the student White other? -8.642 -1.58 -15.70 Is the student Mixed White/Black Caribbean? 0.651 5.35 -4.05 Is the student Mixed White/Black African? -2.97 4.11 -10.05 Is the student Mixed White/Asian? -2.97 4.11 -10.05 Is the student any other Mixed ethnic group? -2.97 4.11 -10.05 Is the student Indian? -6.47 1.17 -14.11 Is the student Pakistani? -8.569 -1.17 -15.96 Is the student Bangladeshi? -8.569 -1.17 -15.96 Is the student any other Asian ethnic group? -6.47 1.17 -14.11 Is the student Black Caribbean? 0.651 5.35 -4.05 Is the student Black African? 0.651 5.35 -4.05 Is the student any other Black ethnic group? 0.651 5.35 -4.05 Is the student Chinese? -6.47 1.17 -14.11 Is the student any other ethnic group? -3.434 2.20 -9.07 Is the student in an unclassified ethnic group? -3.434 2.20 -9.07
The figure published on 19 January 2006 in the 2005 Secondary School Achievement and Attainment tables for the proportion of pupils achieving at least one pass at GCSE and equivalent is based on revised data and is for pupils at the end of key stage 4 (97.4 per cent.). The figure given on 30 January 2007, Official Report, column 212W, is based on final data and is for pupils aged 15 (96.4 per cent.).