To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer which independent variables he uses to make his projections of GDP growth; and what form the growth model takes. (129347)

The Treasury's approach to economic forecasting is described in the 2007 Budget Report (HC342, paragraphs B30 to B35); and the latest forecast for GDP growth is set out in Chapter B of that report. The Treasury's approach to projecting the economy's trend rate of growth is set out in ‘Trend growth: recent developments and prospects’, HM Treasury, April 2002; and for a full discussion of the most recent review of the Treasury's trend growth projections see ‘Trend growth: new evidence and prospects’, HM Treasury, December 2006.