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Economic Situation

Volume 459: debated on Tuesday 1 May 2007

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what his forecasts are for non-oil gross value added growth in each year to 2012; and what the (a) lowest and (b) highest projections are to a (i) 0.5 per cent., (ii) 1 per cent., (iii) 2 per cent., (iv) 5 per cent., (v) 10 per cent., (vi) 25 per cent. and (vii) 50 per cent. level of statistical significance. (134132)

HM Treasury sets out its economic forecasts twice a year in Budget and pre-Budget reports. The Treasury does not publish frequency distributions around its forecasts. However, it does provide average absolute errors over the past 10 years. These are shown in Table B10 of “Chapter B: The economy” of Budget 2007 (HC 342) for spring forecasts, and Table A10 of “Annex A: The economy” of the 2006 Pre-Budget Report (Cm 6984) for autumn forecasts.