[holding answer 20 April 2007]: Forecasts of expenditure on tax credits are based on case load rather than take-up forecasts.
Forecasts of pension credit expenditure are based on forecast increases in the pension credit case load, driven primarily by growth in the estimated entitled population.
Forecasts of housing benefit and council tax benefit expenditure are based on forecast changes in housing benefit case load and average awards. The case load forecasts are driven primarily by changes in the estimated recipient populations for other benefits to which entitlement to housing benefits is related. There are no direct assumptions made for changes in the take-up of housing benefits. If necessary, off-model case load adjustments are used to reflect the impact on take-up of future policy changes.