To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer pursuant to the answer of 17 January 2007, to the hon. Member for Aldershot (Mr. Howarth), Official Report, column 1132W, on Air Passenger Duty, if he will publish the econometric analysis used to assess the impact of changes in air passenger duty rates on passenger and flight numbers. (112555)

The HMRC econometric analysis suggests that the annual suppression of air passengers as a result of the air passenger duty decision announced at pre-Budget report will be around 5 million out of a total 140 million passengers by 2010-11. Translating this figure into flights and emissions reductions suggests that the emissions saving as a result of the decision will be in the range of 0.2-0.5 million tonnes of carbon (MtC) per year. Taking into account the effect of the other, non-carbon dioxide emissions of aviation suggests that there will be an annual climate change impact equivalent to saving 0.75 million tonnes of carbon by 2010-11 from the change to air passenger duty.