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Public Sector: Manpower

Volume 461: debated on Thursday 21 June 2007

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer (1) what his latest estimate is of the (a) total population and (b) number of public sector workers for the period from 2007 to 2057; and if he will make a statement; (144074)

(2) what changes to Government assumptions about (a) public sector staff turnover and (b) the total number of public sector employees in relation to the total population underlie the new estimates of the future costs of public sector pensions in (i) the 2006 long-term public finance report and (ii) the 2004 long-term public finance report ; and if he will make a statement.

The staff turnover assumptions used in the long-term public finance report are provided by the Government Actuary's Department to reflect the actual experience of the schemes. The 2005 staff turnover assumptions were based on the assumptions adopted for principal civil service pension scheme (PCSPS) based on scheme experience while the 2006 assumptions are a weighted average of PCSPS, NHS pension scheme (NHSPS) and the teachers pension scheme (TPS) experience and assumptions. A technical note detailing staff turnover assumptions for the 2005 cash flow projections for unfunded public service pension schemes was also placed in the House of Commons Library in June 2006 and a note detailing the 2006 projections is published on the Government Actuary's Department website.

Data used in the LTPFR assumptions is based on scheme membership and not on the total number of public sector employees. HM Treasury does not produce population estimates or projections. The last official population projections were produced by the Government Actuary's Department in 2005 and are publicly available on their website. The Office for National Statistics will be responsible for producing the next set of projections and these will be published on 23 October.