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Pension Credit: Eligibility

Volume 463: debated on Monday 1 October 2007

To ask the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions if he will make an estimate of the (a) number and (b) proportion of pensioners who will be eligible for pension credit in each year up to 2050. (155384)

[holding answer 17 September 2007]: The numbers eligible to pension credit in the future are subject to a range of uncertainties. For example, in order to make projections, assumptions have to be made about how Governments will choose to uprate benefits in the future. The following table shows the number and proportion of all pensioner households eligible for pension credit every year to 2050-51.

Projected number and proportion of pensioner households eligible for pension credit from 2005-06 to 2050-51

Number (millions)

Proportion (percentage)

2005-06

4.1

46

2006-07

4.0

46

2007-08

4.1

46

2008-09

4.2

46

2009-10

4.3

46

2010-11

4.3

46

2011-12

4.2

46

2012-13

4.2

46

2013-14

4.1

46

2014-15

4.1

46

2015-16

4.0

45

2016-17

3.9

44

2017-18

3.8

44

2018-19

3.8

43

2019-20

3.7

43

2020-21

3.7

43

2021-22

3.7

42

2022-23

3.7

41

2023-24

3.7

41

2024-25

3.6

40

2025-26

3.5

40

2026-27

3.5

39

2027-28

3.5

39

2028-29

3.6

38

2029-30

3.6

37

2030-31

3.6

37

2031-32

3.7

36

2032-33

3.7

36

2033-34

3.7

35

2034-35

3.7

35

2035-36

3.7

35

2036-37

3.7

35

2037-38

3.6

34

2038-39

3.6

33

2039-40

3.6

33

2040-41

3.5

32

2041-42

3.5

32

2042-43

3.4

32

2043-44

3.4

31

2044-45

3.3

31

2045-46

3.3

31

2046-47

3.2

31

2047-48

3.2

31

2048-49

3.2

30

2049-50

3.1

29

2050-51

3.0

29

Notes: 1. Estimates cover all those aged above women's state pension age (SPA) in the private household population of Great Britain. Pensioner households are defined here as single people aged over women's SPA and couples where at least one partner is over women's SPA. 2. Estimates of the number of pensioner households eligible are rounded to the nearest 0.1 million, and proportions to the nearest 1 per cent. 3. Proportions entitled are based on Pensim2, a dynamic micro-simulation model produced by the Department for Work and Pensions. This model is designed to estimate long-term trends; estimates for individual years are subject to random variation and should be treated with caution. The time series have been smoothed using a three-year moving average. 4. Numbers entitled have been estimated by applying the estimated proportion entitled to the projected household population above women's SPA, which is derived from Government Actuary's Department's 2004-based projections of individuals and trends in private households modelled in Pensim2. 5. Projections are calibrated to National Statistics estimates of eligibility to pension credit in 2005-06, which adjust Family Resources Survey data to take account of possible biases in reporting. The National Statistics are published as a range; the projections have been calibrated to the mid-point of that range. 6. Projections take account of policies introduced in the Pensions Act 2007, including changes in state pension age. They do not include any increase in private saving from the introduction of personal accounts, which would further reduce the numbers eligible for pension credit.