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Volume 464: debated on Tuesday 16 October 2007

To ask the Secretary of State for Justice what the evidential basis is upon which his Department projects the rate of expansion in the prison population to 2010-11. (158344)

Prison population projections are calculated using a range of mathematical models. The evidential basis for these calculations is a mixture of observed prison population data, sentencing data (wherever this is possible) and stakeholder assumptions. The stakeholders are experts drawn from the Ministry of Justice, the Home Office and across the Criminal Justice System. The latest projections were published in the Ministry of Justice Statistical Bulletin "Prison population projections 2007-2014, England and Wales" (August 2007).

This is available on the Ministry of Justice website ( The models used in the calculations are described in Annex C and the stakeholder assumptions in Annex B of the Statistical Bulletin. Copies of the Statistical Bulletin will be sent to the Libraries of the House.