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Population

Volume 464: debated on Friday 19 October 2007

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what his estimate is of the size of the likely UK population in each year until 2050; what it was in each of the last seven years; and if he will make a statement. (158572)

The information requested falls within the responsibility of the National Statistician, who has been asked to reply.

Letter from Karen Dunnell, dated 19 October 2007:

As National Statistician I have been asked to reply to your question regarding the estimated population for each year until 2050 and the population for each of the previous seven years. (158572)

The attached table shows the total population for 1999 to 2050, for the United Kingdom. The latest available population estimates relate to 2006. The latest population projections are 2004-based. New 2006-based national population projections will be published on 23 October 2007.

Total population United Kingdom

Year

Million

Population estimates

1999

58.7

2000

58.9

2001

59.1

2002

59.3

2003

59.6

2004

59.8

2005

60.2

2006

60.6

Population projections

2007

60.8

2008

61.1

2009

61.4

2010

61.6

2011

61.9

2012

62.2

2013

62.4

2014

62.7

2015

63.0

2016

63.3

2017

63.6

2018

63.9

2019

64.2

2020

64.4

2021

64.7

2022

65.0

2023

65.3

2024

65.5

2025

65.8

2026

66.0

2027

66.2

2028

66.4

2029

66.6

2030

66.8

2031

67.0

2032

67.2

2033

67.3

2034

67.5

2035

67.6

2036

67.8

2037

67.9

2038

68.0

2039

68.1

2040

68.2

2041

68.4

2042

68.5

2043

68.6

2044

68.7

2045

68.8

2046

68.8

2047

68.9

2048

69.0

2049

69.1

2050

69.2

Source:

Office for National Statistics mid-year estimates; Government Actuary's Department 2004-based national population projections

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what his estimate is of the proportion of the UK population which was born abroad in (a) 2000 and (b) 2006; and what he expects it to be in (i) 2010, (ii) 2020, (iii) 2030, (iv) 2040 and (v) 2050. (158573)

The information requested falls within the responsibility of the National Statistician, who has been asked to reply.

Letter from Mike Hughes, dated 19 October 2007:

The National Statistician has been asked to reply to your recent Parliamentary Question concerning the proportion of the UK population which was born abroad in (a) 2000 and (b) 2006; and what it is expected to be in (i) 2020, (ii) 2020, (iii) 2030, (iv) 2040 and (v) 2050. I am replying in her absence. (158573)

Based on the Labour Force Survey (LFS), the proportion of the UK population that was foreign born in 2000 was 7.6%. The equivalent proportion in 2006 was 10.0%.

There are no official projections of the proportion of the UK population that is foreign born.

When interpreting these figures, it is important to bear in mind that the Labour Force Survey (LFS) is designed to capture all people in the UK living in a private household or NHS accommodation. Some UK residents are not captured by the LFS including students living in halls of residence who do not have a UK-resident parent, and people living in other types of communal establishment (such as hostels, hotels, boarding houses, or mobile home sites). These factors may contribute to the LFS giving a slight underestimate of the foreign born population as a proportion of the total UK population.

As with any sample survey, LFS estimates are subject to a margin of uncertainty.