The Department has not made detailed projections at a local level. Demographic changes will vary between local areas, of course, as will the nature of demand from young people, and local authorities will need to use their own projections to plan accordingly.
The proposed legislation is for the education and training leaving age, not the school leaving age, to be raised to 18 years. This will be done in two stages, with the age not being raised to 18 until 2015. We estimate that most of the additional places required will be in FE colleges, not in schools.
The Youth Cohort Study (YCS) for England and Wales provides information on the activities of young people who have completed compulsory education. For the cohort of 16-year-olds who completed their compulsory education in 2002/03, the YCS estimates that 31 per cent. of those who did not stay on in full-time education after the age of 16 had five or more A* - C grade GCSEs or equivalent.
There are very significant benefits to young people from staying in education and training until at least the age of 18. Staying in learning not only supports young people to get a better job; it also improves their life chances and equips them with the personal and social skills they need to thrive throughout their lives. That is why we have embarked on a series of education and training reforms which will ensure that there are suitable progression routes for all young people, and published on 5 November plans for raising the participation age to 18.
Financial support for learning will be restructured when the compulsory participation age is raised to 18, and we are looking at a variety of methods to ensure that this is done in the most effective way to ensure young people are enabled to participate. In doing this we will build on the foundation of the educational maintenance allowance, and the views we gathered in the public consultation on “supporting young people to achieve.”
(2) what (a) proportion and (b) number of (i) 16, (ii) 17 and (iii) 18-year-olds were in education and training in each year from 1997 to 2006; and what his estimate is of the equivalent figures in each year from 2007 to 2015.
The figures provided are for 16, 17 and 18-year-olds in ‘education and work based-learning’ in each year from 1997 to 2006 in England, and will include some learners in part-time training. These figures are available as additional information with the Statistical First Release published by the Department in SFR 22/2007, please see the following web link:
http://www.dfes.gov.uk/rsgatewav/DB/SFR/s000734/index.shtml
Academic age 16 17 18 1997/98 84.6 76.5 56.7 1998/99 83.7 75.9 55.8 1999/2000 84.6 76.8 56.0 2000/01 83.7 76.5 55.5 2001/02 82.6 73.9 53.8 2002/03 83.4 73.7 53.1 2003/04 83.7 74.7 52.7 2004/05 84.7 74.8 53.3 2005/06 86.0 76.1 54.4 2006/07 (provisional) 87.2 77.5 53.7
Academic age 16 17 18 1997/98 512,800 467,500 333,800 1998/99 497,700 458,300 338,400 1999/2000 506,500 453,500 334,800 2000/01 507,800 457,200 325,000 2001/02 523,300 453,300 323,700 2002/03 526,900 471,800 330,200 2003/04 541 ,900 477,000 342,500 2004/05 563,400 490,200 345,900 2005/06 564,100 512,000 361,700 2006/07 (provisional) 577,600 510,900 364,800
Projections of participation by 16 and 17-year-olds were published in the Green Paper “Raising Expectations: staying in education and training post-16”. The following tables provide these by age and also include 18-year-olds. They are subject to change following receipt of up-to-date data and publication of the Learning and Skills Council’s annual statement of priorities.
Academic age 16 17 18 2007/08 87.2 79.6 53.0 2008/09 88.6 80.2 54.1 2009/10 89.5 82.2 54.9 2010/11 91.3 83.9 56.1 2011/12 92.0 86.1 56.5 2012/13 92.4 87.6 57.2 2013/14 100.0 88.1 57.4 2014/15 100.0 94.1 57.3 2015/16 100.0 100.0 57.7
Academic age 16 17 18 2007/08 582,000 532,000 354,000 2008/09 583,000 540,000 366,000 2009/10 568,000 546,000 374,000 2010/11 575,000 537,000 377,000 2011/12 570,000 547,000 367,000 2012/13 570,000 547,000 368,000 2013/14 619,000 548,000 364,000 2014/15 605,000 589,000 361,000 2015/16 594,000 612,000 366,000
The estimated proportion of 17-year-olds expected to participate in 2020 is 100 per cent.
On 5 November we published a document setting out how our proposals to raise the participation age have developed since the consultation, and which aspects require legislation. This explains that enforcement action will be a last resort, but if a young person is not participating once suitable learning provision has been identified for them and appropriate support provided, the local authority will be able to issue an attendance notice, specifying precisely the provision the young person must attend and where and when they must do this. We estimate that very few young people will reach the stage of being issued with an attendance notice, as the focus of the policy will be on ensuring that there is an engaging and worthwhile learning programme for every young person and the right support, including financial support, to help them stay in learning and succeed. The estimates and projections in the initial regulatory impact assessment (which has been placed in the Library of the House) are being revised to reflect developments in the policy before being published in the impact assessment that will accompany the Education and Skills Bill.
No individual will have to give up employment they already have as a result of our plans to raise the participation age to 18 from 2013. The first young people to be affected are currently in Year 6, so will have time to prepare. 16 and 17-year-olds cannot currently work more than 40 hours a week, and we do not propose to change this. An estimate of foregone productivity costs will be included in the impact assessment which will be published with the Education and Skills Bill.
Individuals will not incur additional staff costs. Some businesses may incur additional staffing costs if they choose to employ 18-year-olds, to whom they must pay a higher National Minimum Wage, rather than 16 and 17-year-olds. The estimates in the initial regulatory impact assessment published alongside the Green Paper (which was placed in the Library of the House) are being revised to reflect developments in the policy and will be published in an impact assessment alongside the Education and Skills Bill.
An initial regulatory impact assessment was published alongside the “Raising Expectations: staying in education and training post-16” Green Paper in March. This included estimated costs of £6.7 million to local authorities of enforcing the duty. This was based on the enforcement system set out in the Green Paper and the assumption that it would be used as a very last resort, with the focus of the policy on ensuring that there is an engaging and worthwhile learning programme available for every young person, along with the right support for them to access it successfully. As we said in the Green Paper, we will continue to make sure local authorities are properly resourced to deliver the new requirements.
The Green Paper proposed that one option for enforcing attendance orders would be for an individual, on breach of the terms of such an order to be liable to prosecution. Court costs of £2.5 million and legal aid costs of between £0.25-0.7 million were therefore included in the initial RIA to reflect this. The estimates in the initial RIA are being revised to reflect developments in the policy before being published in an impact assessment alongside the Education and Skills Bill.
An initial regulatory impact assessment was published alongside the “Raising Expectations: staying in education and training post-16” Green Paper in March, and copies were place in the Library of the House. The estimated additional annual costs to local authorities were based on additional resources needed to track and contact young people not participating, provide help and support to address issues and re-engage in learning, and ultimately enforce the duty, through the system of attendance notices described in the Green Paper. No additional costs were forecast for registration, based on maintaining the Connexions Caseload Information System. An estimated cost of £50 million for additional tracking and support was included, and an estimated cost to local authorities of £6.7 million for enforcement (with other enforcement costs being incurred elsewhere). As we said in the Green Paper, we will make sure the local authorities are properly resourced to deliver the new requirements. The estimates in the initial regulatory impact assessment are being revised to reflect developments in the policy before being published in an impact assessment alongside the Education and Skills Bill.