The available information is in the tables.
The figures provided are projections that are made as part of the normal process of assessing long-term public finances. As part of this, projections for jobseeker’s allowance make use of the Treasury’s unemployment assumption.
The figures provided in the tables are in line with the cautious and prudent approach to making fiscal projections, where the impact of existing and proposed policies is taken into account once there is robust evidence of their effect, but the impact of new or planned policies is not considered where the evidence is more limited. For example, the incapacity benefits figures include estimates of the impact of the roll-out of Pathways to Work but not the introduction of Employment and Support Allowance.
The figures are not therefore an assessment of the aims or effect of Government strategy in the benefit and employment field.
thousand Claimants Flows-on Flows-off 2006-07 987 285 284 2007-08 997 286 280 2008-09 990 271 283 2009-10 974 262 276 2010-11 974 269 259 2011-12 979 270 259 2012-13 983 271 260 2013-14 987 272 260 2014-15 993 273 260 2015-16 998 274 261 2016-17 1,005 274 261 2017-18 1,011 275 261 2018-19 1,019 275 260 2019-20 1,026 276 262
thousand Claimants Flows -on Flows-off 2006-07 1,456 311 357 2007-08 1,408 312 356 2008-09 1,348 297 358 2009-10 1,284 288 347 2010-11 1,261 304 309 2011-12 1,246 308 319 2012-13 1,224 310 316 2013-14 1,213 314 311 2014-15 1,207 317 309 2015-16 1,204 321 309 2016-17 1,207 325 309 2017-18 1,212 330 311 2018-19 1,221 334 312 2019-20 1,230 338 314
thousand Claimants Flows-off 2006-07 276 18 2007-08 258 14 2008-09 244 13 2009-10 231 12 2010-11 219 12 2011-12 208 10 2012-13 198 11 2013-14 188 9 2014-15 178 10 2015-16 169 8 2016-17 160 9 2017-18 152 8 2018-19 144 8 2019-20 136 8 Notes: 1. Figures are based on published Comprehensive Spending Review 2007 estimates. 2. Figures do not take into account new or planned policies. 3. Figures are projections and are therefore subject to revisions. 4. Figures include estimates of the impact of equalisation of state pension age on incapacity benefit. 5. New flows onto severe disablement allowance ceased from April 2001. 6. Figures for severe disablement allowance include working-age and pensioner claimants. 7. The balance between flows-on and flows-off will not reconcile to year-on-year changes. This is due to the within-year averaging applied to claimant projections.
thousand Caseload Flows-on Flows-off 2007-08 2,128 625 640 2008-09 2,099 608 626 2009-10 2,064 608 624 2010-11 2,051 618 622 2011-12 2,060 623 626 2012-13 2,080 626 627 2013-14 2,092 629 626 2014-15 2,099 633 626 2015-16 2,110 637 626 2016-17 2,124 641 627 2017-18 2,144 645 627 2018-19 2,163 649 627 2019-20 2,188 654 628 Notes: 1. Figures are based on published Comprehensive Spending Review 2007 estimates. 2. Figures do not take into account new or planned policies. 3. Figures are projections and are therefore subject to revisions. 4. Figures include estimates of the impact of equalisation of state pension age on income support. 5. The balance between flows-on and flows-off will not reconcile to year-on-year changes. This is due to the within-year averaging applied to claimant projections. 6. The figures for income support will include the majority of the projections for incapacity benefit credits-only.
thousand 2007-08 842 2008-09 871 2009-10 894 2010-11 896 2011-12 896 Notes: 1. These figures relate to Great Britain, and are consistent with the assumption for the UK. 2. The assumption on the future claimant count is the average of a number of forecasts, all of which are made by non-Governmental organisations. When these forecasters predict that the claimant count will increase (as here), it follows that the assumption will reflect that increase. Were these forecasters to predict a decrease in the claimant count, then the assumption would remain constant at its current level for all future years. 3. These figures are audited by the National Audit Office. 4. Since very few of the external forecasters predict the claimant count beyond 2011-12, the assumption ends in that year. 5. The claimant count in 2011-12 is equivalent to 2.9 per cent. of the economically active population of working age, based on the calculations underpinning the Long-Term Public Finance Report. Projections for 2012-13 onwards assume that this rate will be constant.