Skip to main content

Pensions: Finance

Volume 469: debated on Tuesday 11 December 2007

To ask the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions if he will estimate the net annual cost for each year from 2008 to 2025 of (a) paying the basic state pension at its current level, increased annually in line with average earnings to all pensioners, (b) raising the basic state pension to the current level of the Pensions Credit Guarantee, increased annually in line with average earnings and paying it to all pensioners and (c) raising the basic state pension to 60 per cent. of median population income, increased annually in line with average earnings and paying it to all pensioners. (164652)

The information is in the following table.

Estimated net additional costs for all UK pensioners

£ billion (2007-08 prices)

Financial year

(a) Basic state pension increased annually in line with average earnings

(b) Basic state pension increased to pension credit standard minimum guarantee increased annually in line with average earnings

(c) Basic state pension increased to 60 per cent. of median population income increased annually in line with average earnings

2008

6

23

22

2009

7

24

23

2010

8

25

24

2011

8

26

25

2012

8

26

25

2013

8

26

26

2014

8

27

26

2015

8

27

26

2016

7

27

26

2017

7

28

27

2018

7

28

27

2019

7

28

27

2020

7

29

28

2021

7

29

28

2022

7

30

29

2023

7

31

30

2024

7

32

30

2025

7

32

30

Notes:

1. Estimates are presented in net terms meaning that estimated savings from reduced income related benefit payments (pension credit, housing benefit and council tax benefit) have been deducted. The proportions of additional expenditure saved through reduced income related benefit payments in 2008-09 have been estimated using the Department’s Policy Simulation Model. This proportion is assumed to remain constant in future years.

2. Column 2 is based on paying UK pensioners the current full value of the basic state pension of £87.30 per week uprated by the relevant Average Earnings Index of 3.5 per cent. and rounded to the nearest five pence, which gives a figure of £90.35 in 2008-09.

3. Column 3 is based on the value of the current level of the pension credit standard minimum guarantee of £119.05 per week for a single person, uprated by the relevant Average Earnings Index of 3.5 per cent. and rounded to the nearest five pence, which gives a figure of £123.20 in 2008-09.

4. Column 4: Sixty per cent. of median population income for a single person with no children after deducting housing costs was £108 per week in 2005-06 (Households Below Average Income: An analysis of the income distribution 1994/95—2005/06 (Revised), DWP). This figure has been uprated by average earnings to £121.60 per week in 2008-09.

5. In the financial years up to and including 2013-14 Treasury economic assumptions have been used to model earnings uprating. After this point a long term earnings growth assumption of 4.93 per cent. has been applied.

6. No changes have been made to the current or projected level of the savings credit threshold.

7. ‘All pensioners’ is defined as all individuals over state pension age living in the United Kingdom. The estimates do not include pensioners claiming a UK pension, but living overseas. Including this group would increase the estimated costs.

8. The estimates are consistent with mid-2004 GAD population projections. We are currently in the process of revising our expenditure projections in line with the mid-2006 ONS population projections.

9. Estimates are in 2007-08 prices and have been rounded to the nearest £ billion.

Source:

DWP modelling