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Climate Change

Volume 474: debated on Monday 21 April 2008

To ask the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs what his highest projection is of the average annual temperature for the UK in 2050. (199418)

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fourth Assessment Report includes ‘high-end’ projections for global temperature rise from an ensemble of climate models. These are based on close to business-as-usual Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (for example, A2 and A1B).

Using these projections, our current best estimate for a high-end UK-wide average annual temperature increase by 2050 (relative to 1990) is approximately 1.75° C.

In general terms, there is relatively little differentiation in temperature projections at 2050, no matter what emissions scenario is chosen. However, later this century, the gap between high-end and low-end scenarios will widen.