(2) what estimate she has made of the effect on forecast unconstrained demand for airport capacity in 2030 as shown in the Future of Air Travel Progress Report of including the recent change in Air Passenger Duty.
The results of updating the forecasts of air passenger demand in ‘The Future of Air Transport Progress Report’ (2006) with the latest data, including the 2007 increase in Air Passenger Duty, were reported in ‘UK Air Passenger Demand and CO2 Forecasts’ (November 2007), which is available at:
Table 2.9 (p. 37) shows the central forecast is for unconstrained air passenger demand to grow from 228 million passengers per annum (mppa) in 2005 to 495mppa in 2030.
The latest forecasts of UK air passenger demand were reported in ‘UK Air Passenger Demand and CO2 Forecasts' (November 2007), which is available at:
Table 2.10 (p.41) reports the effect of a set of sensitivity tests, whereby key inputs are varied within reasonable bounds, on demand. This includes varying the oil price projection in line with the Department for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform's oil price range.
The impact of assuming that the cost of aviation fuel continues to rise until 2030, but at half the rate that it has risen in the last four years, is not available.
Aviation fuel price data are not officially collected. However, information on aviation fuel prices is available from sources such as:
Based on daily wholesale prices reported by Platts, the price of aviation jet fuel in March 2008 averaged $133 per barrel, or 42 pence per litre.
Table 2.3 of CAA's ‘Airline Financial Statistics 2006-07' reports a breakdown of operating revenues and expenses for major UK airlines. This is available at:
The data show that aircraft fuel and oil accounted for £4.0 billion (26 per cent.) of the £15.6 billion total operating expenses incurred by major UK airlines in 2006.