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Volume 474: debated on Thursday 24 April 2008

To ask the Secretary of State for Justice what three offender characteristics are given the greatest weight when calculating the predicted rate of adult re-offending; and what assessment he has made of the effect of each on the predicted rate. (200202)

The calculation of the predicted rate of adult re-offending considers three main offender characteristics: gender, age and criminal history of the offender—although these characteristics are broken down further in the model by various subcategories.

The individual effect of each on the predicted rate was not assessed in detail because the main purpose of the predicted rate is to control for offender characteristics across different cohorts. In short, it is the combined effect of all offender characteristics which is of greatest interest.

Detailed methodology on how the predicted rate is derived can be found in the ‘Methodological annex: statistical modelling’ section of the 2007 report ‘Re-offending of adults: results from the 2004 cohort’, available online at: