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Population

Volume 476: debated on Monday 19 May 2008

To ask the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster what projections of population density for (a) the UK, (b) England, (c) Scotland, (d) Wales and (e) Northern Ireland in 2056 and beyond have been made. (205787)

The information requested falls within the responsibility of the UK Statistics Authority. I have asked the Authority to reply.

Letter from Karen Dunnell, dated May 2008:

As National Statistician, I have been asked to reply to your question asking what projections have been made of population density for (a) the UK, (b) England, (c) Scotland, (d) Wales and (e) Northern Ireland in 2056 and beyond. (205787)

Projected population densities can be calculated for any year from the published projected total population for that year and the area of the country. Projected densities for the year 2056, and country areas, are given in the table below.

National population projections are published for up to 75 years ahead and are available from the National Statistics website at:

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=8519

However, long-term projections should be treated with great caution. Population projections become increasingly uncertain the further they are carried forward, and particularly so for smaller geographic areas.

Projected population density of UK and constituent countries in 2056

Projected population (million)

Area (sq km)

Density (persons/sqkm)

United Kingdom

79

242,495

324

England

68

130,279

521

Wales

3

20,733

165

Scotland

5

77,907

67

Northern Ireland

2

13,576

53

Source: 2006-based national projections, ONS.