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Social Security Benefits

Volume 478: debated on Monday 23 June 2008

To ask the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions what his Department’s forecasts are for (a) on-flow, (b) off-flow and (c) stock estimates for (i) incapacity benefit, (ii) income support, broken down by statistical group, and (iii) employment and support allowance for each of the next five years. (209940)

[holding answer 10 June 2008]: The available information is in the following tables. The information is provided for the period up to the end of the Government’s spending plans, 2010-11, and does not take account of any future policy announcements.

Incapacity benefits and employment support allowance: estimated number of claimants, flows onto and off benefit

Thousand (estimated outturn)

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

Stock

Incapacity Benefit

2,400

2,220

1,930

1,670

Severe Disablement Allowance

220

200

190

180

Employment and Support Allowance

n/a

100

280

480

On-flows

Incapacity Benefit

600

320

40

20

Severe Disablement Allowance

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Employment and Support Allowance

n/a

280

580

600

Off-flows

Incapacity Benefit

640

460

260

250

Severe Disablement Allowance

20

20

10

10

Employment and Support Allowance

n/a

60

350

420

Notes:

1. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10 thousand. Components may not sum due to rounding.

2. Figures relate to adults of working-age.

3. Severe disablement allowance closed to new claimants in April 2001.

4. Employment and support allowance (ESA) is introduced in October 2008 and replaces incapacity benefit for new claimants. Figures for 2008-09 for ESA therefore relate to six months only.

5. Figures for on-flows to incapacity benefit from 2008-09 onwards include estimates of claimants who are likely to have a break in their claim and will be allowed to receive incapacity benefit again under linking rules.

6. Figures are consistent with benefit expenditure tables available on the DWP website through the following link:

http://www.dwp.gov.uk/asd/asd4/expenditure.asp

Income support: Estimated number of claimants, flows onto and off benefit

Thousand (estimated outturn)

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

Income Support stock

2,120

2,050

1,730

1,510

of which:

Sick or disabled

1,250

1,200

990

860

Lone Parent

760

730

610

520

Others

120

120

130

130

Income Support on-flow

720

530

270

240

of which:

Sick or disabled

440

260

10

0

Lone Parent

220

210

190

180

Others

60

60

70

70

Income Support off-flow

740

680

580

440

of which:

Sick or disabled

450

390

200

110

Lone Parent

240

240

320

270

Others

60

60

60

60

Notes:

1. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10 thousand. Components may not sum due to rounding.

2. Income support on the grounds of incapacity will no longer be payable to new claimants after the introduction of employment and support allowance in October 2008.

3. Figures for ‘Others’ include income support for carers, pregnant women and ex-minimum income guarantee claimants.

4. Figures are consistent with benefit expenditure tables available on the DWP website through the following link:

http://www.dwp.gov.uk/asd/asd4/expenditure.asp