The information requested falls within the responsibility of the UK Statistics Authority. I have asked the Authority to reply.
Letter from Karen Dunnell, dated 6 October 2008:
As National Statistician, I have been asked to reply to your question about what assumptions about (a) local authority house-building rates and (b) the rate of net migration have been made in individual local authority projections for (i) 2008, (ii) 2009 and (iii) 2010, pursuant to the answer to the hon. Member for Falmouth and Camborne of 12 June 2008, Official Report, column 498W, on local government finance. [222642]
The subnational population projections are based on observed demographic trends. They provide the population levels and structure that would result if the recent trends in fertility, mortality and migration levels continue. No specific account is taken of house-building except as it may have already contributed to past population growth which feeds into the population projections.
The projections used in current local government finance settlements are the 2004-based revised sub-national population projections. On this basis, the net-migration estimates for 2008 and 2009 (but not 2010) are available on the ONS website:
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_population/2004_BasedProj_Revised/18_Migration summaries_LAs.xls.
In June this year ONS published 2006-based projections, and the net-migration estimates for 2010 are available from this set of projections. However, these estimates were not available at the time of the local government finance settlements.