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Immigration

Volume 480: debated on Thursday 16 October 2008

To ask the Secretary of State for the Home Department what recent estimate she has made of projected levels on net migration into the UK over the next (a) five, (b) 10 and (c) 25 years; from which countries arrivals are expected; and if she will make a statement. (226841)

I have been asked to reply.

The information requested falls within the responsibility of the UK Statistics Authority. I have asked the authority to reply.

Letter from Karen Dunnell, dated October 2008:

As National Statistician, I have been asked to reply to your question asking what recent estimate has been made of projected levels of net migration into the UK over the next (a) five, (b) 10 and (c) 25 years; from which countries arrivals are expected. (226841)

National population projections are normally produced every two years. The latest (2006-based) national population projections were published by the Office for National Statistics in October 2007 and the next (2008-based) set are planned for publication in October 2009.

The levels of net inward migration to the UK for future years assumed in the 2006-based projections are summarised in the following table. The assumptions underlying national population projections are demographic trend based. They are not forecasts. They do not attempt to predict the impact that future government policies, changing economic circumstances or other factors (whether in the UK or overseas) might have on demographic behaviour.

Mid-year to mid-year

Assumed net migration

2008-09

+230,000

2009-10

+221,400

2010-11

+211,400

2011-12

+201,400

2012-13 and 2013-14

+191,400

2014-15 onwards

+190,000

These assumptions are not available broken down by country of origin or destination.