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Diabetes

Volume 480: debated on Thursday 16 October 2008

To ask the Secretary of State for Health what the average points score was for practices across each primary care trust for the 16 indicators for diabetes in the quality of outcomes framework. (225179)

To ask the Secretary of State for Health (1) what figures his Department holds on predicted diabetes rates in the next 10 years; and if he will make a statement; (225183)

(2) how many people with diagnosed type two diabetes there are in each primary care trust; and how many people are estimated to have undiagnosed type two diabetes in each such area.

The Department does not hold information on predicted diabetes rates for the next 10 years. Yorkshire and Humber Public Health Observatory's PBS Diabetes Population Prevalence Model forecasts that, if obesity levels continue to rise at the same rate, there will be over 3.2 million with people with diabetes in 2020.

Scenario 1: Obesity rise continues1

Scenario 2: Obesity maintained at 2005 level

2005

2,262,484

2,262,484

2010

2,561,421

2,434,164

2015

2,874,066

2,600,833

2020

3,229,734

2,788,676

2025

3,605,133

2,974,995

1 Based on extrapolation of 1991-2006 trend in body mass index distribution in the Health Survey for England

Information on the number of people diagnosed with type 2 diabetes in each primary care trust (PCT) is not available. However, tables have been placed in the Library which show the number of people on diabetes registers (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) from April 2007 to March 2008, broken down by PCT, from the Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF). Patients will only contribute to the figures in QOF if they are registered with a general practice participating in the QOF. The QOF only includes people with diabetes aged 17 or over.

The PBS Diabetes Population Prevalence Model can estimate the number of people with diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetes in each PCT. The table shows the estimated number of people with type 2 diabetes (diagnosed and undiagnosed) per PCT in 2005, the latest information available from the PBS model.