[holding answer 17 September 2008]: Employment and support allowance was introduced on 27 October 2008. Therefore there have been no outturn data yet. However, estimates have been made, which show expected claim durations. These figures are not an assessment of the aims or effect of the introduction of the new benefit.
Details of the proportion of people remaining on benefit after particular periods provided in the following table are in line with the cautious and prudent approach to making fiscal projections, where the impact of existing and proposed policies is taken into account once there is robust evidence of their effect, but the impact of new or planned policies is not considered where the evidence is more limited.
The historical data on severely disabled incapacity benefit cases show that they leave benefit very slowly as it takes longer for them to adapt to their conditions. Virtually no one who is severely disabled leaves benefit within three months, though outflows from this group start to rise over time.
Percentage Up to 13 weeks 99.8 Up to 6 months 98.4 Up to 12 months 92.5 Up to 24 months 80.7 Up to 30 months 78.8 30 months+ 76.4 Notes: 1. Employment and support allowance was introduced on 27 October 2008 and replaces incapacity benefit and income support on the grounds of sickness or disability for new claimants. 2. Estimates do not take into account new or planned policies where evidence is more limited. 3. Estimates are based on the latest available data and are subject to revision as new data become available. 4. Estimates relate to employment and support allowance support group awards for adults of working-age. 5. Estimates are extrapolated from the historic administrative data on survival of the most severely disabled on incapacity benefits.
[holding answer 17 September 2008]: Employment and support allowance was introduced on 27 October 2008. Therefore there have been no outturn data yet. However, estimates have been made, which show expected claim durations. These figures are not an assessment of the aims or effect of the introduction of the new benefit.
Details of the proportions of claimants remaining on benefit after particular periods provided in the following table are in line with the cautious and prudent approach to making fiscal projections, where the impact of existing and proposed policies is taken into account once there is robust evidence of their effect, but the impact of new or planned policies is not considered where the evidence is more limited.
Claimants remaining on benefit (percentage) Up to 13 weeks 61.3 Up to 6 months 49.4 Up to 12 months 33.3 Up to 24 months 28.0 Up to 30 months 26.0 30 months + 25.2 Notes: 1. Employment and support allowance was introduced on 27 October 2008 and replaced incapacity benefit and income support on the grounds of sickness or disability for new claimants. 2. Estimates do not take into account new or planned policies where evidence is more limited. 3. Estimates are based on the latest available data and are subject to revision as new data become available. 4. Estimates relate to all employment and support allowance awards for adults of working age. 5. Estimates are extrapolated from the historic incapacity benefits data from the Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study with adjustments made to allow for the impact of Pathways to Work and employment and support allowance.