Skip to main content

Prisons: Population

Volume 486: debated on Thursday 15 January 2009

To ask the Secretary of State for Justice what the projected prison population is for each month of (a) 2009-10 and (b) 2010-11. (247077)

The Ministry of Justice produces annual projections of the prison population, most recently in September 2008.

These project the prison population under three different scenarios, based on different assumptions about future sentencing trends: the medium scenario assumes no increases or decreases in custody rates or determinate sentence lengths. The high/low scenarios reflect a 1 per cent. per annum increase/decrease in custody rates and a 0.5 per cent. per annum increase/decrease in the average (determinate) custodial sentence lengths.

Other impacts included in the projections, such as those of legislation and processes, are applied equally to all scenarios. These cover the anticipated impacts of policy and process initiatives that have agreed implementation timetables.

High

Medium

Low

April 2009

84,000

83,400

82,600

May 2009

84,200

83,400

82,600

June 2009

85,100

84,300

83,300

July 2009

86,100

85,200

84,200

August 2009

85,400

84,500

83,400

September 2009

85,900

84,800

83,600

October 2009

86,400

85,300

84,000

November 2009

86,400

85,200

83,800

December 2009

84,700

83,400

81,900

January 2010

85,800

84,500

82,900

February 2010

86,100

84,700

83,000

March 2010

87,300

85,800

84,100

April 2010

87,500

85,900

84,100

May 2010

87,500

85,900

84,000

June 2010

88,100

86,400

84,400

July 2010

88,600

86,800

84,800

August 2010

88,900

87,100

84,900

September 2010

89,300

87,400

85,200

October 2010

89,400

87,500

85,200

November 2010

89,400

87,300

85,000

December 2010

86,600

84,500

82,100

January 2011

88,800

86,600

84,200

February 2011

89,700

87,400

84,800

March 2011

89,700

87,400

84,700

Notes:

1. Data are rounded to the nearest hundred.

2. Data are given for the last day of each month.

More details on the projections may be found in the latest published bulletin ‘Prison Population Projections 2008-2015’, Ministry of Justice Statistics Bulletin, 18 September 2008. This is available at the following webpage:

http://www.justice.gov.uk/publications/prisonpopulation.htm