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Childbirth

Volume 490: debated on Monday 30 March 2009

To ask the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster what estimate the Office for National Statistics has made of the number of births in each of the years from 2008 to 2031 inclusive; and what estimate it has made of the number of those accounted for by net migration. (267778)

The information requested falls within the responsibility of the UK Statistics Authority. I have asked the Authority to reply.

Letter from Karen Dunnell, dated March 2009:

As National Statistician I have been asked to reply to your question regarding what estimate the Office for National Statistics has made of the number of births in each of the years from 2008 to 2031, inclusive; and what estimate it has made of the number of those accounted for by net migration. [267778]

The attached table shows the projected number of births in the UK for each year from mid-2008 to mid-2031 according to the 2006-based principal national population projection.

A direct estimate of the number of projected births from 2008 to 2031 accounted for by net migration is not available. However, it is possible to compare the results of the principal projection with the 2006-based ‘zero migration’ variant projection. The ‘zero migration’ variant projection assumes that net migration will be zero at all ages throughout the projection period but makes the same assumptions about future fertility and mortality as the principal projection.

On this basis, the table also shows the estimated number of projected births attributable to assumed net migration from mid-2006 onwards. There are limitations to this as a direct estimate of the impact of net migration on the number of births over the period 2008-2031. These limitations are that the comparison will:

exclude births to migrants who arrived in the UK prior to mid-2006; but

include, in later years, births to UK-born women who are children of migrants who arrived in the UK after mid-2006.

Projected number of births, United Kingdom, 2008 to 2031, 2006-based principal projection and zero migration variant projection

Thousand

Year to:

Principal projection: Births

Zero migration variant projection: Births

Difference: Births accounted for by assumed net migration from mid-2006

mid-2008

769

756

13

mid-2009

781

757

23

mid-2010

790

756

34

mid-2011

797

753

44

mid-2012

799

745

54

mid-2013

799

735

64

mid-2014

798

726

73

mid-2015

799

717

81

mid-2016

801

711

90

mid-2017

804

706

98

mid-2018

805

700

105

mid-2019

806

695

111

mid-2020

806

689

117

mid-2021

804

682

122

mid-2022

802

676

125

mid-2023

799

670

129

mid-2024

796

665

131

mid-2025

794

660

133

mid-2026

792

657

135

mid-2027

790

653

137

mid-2028

788

650

139

mid-2029

788

647

140

mid-2030

788

645

142

mid-2031

788

643

145

Note:

Figures may not sum due to rounding.