Our assessment of the effects on private sector investment following the pause in the negotiations on the St. Helena airport is that it is likely to be reduced in this financial year. This is because many current plans for investment by local businesses, which are modest in scale, have been put on hold pending a final decision following the consultation that is under way. In regard to foreign investment, the St. Helena Development Agency (SHDA) has received interest from five investors in a range of development projects, which are now on hold. The largest potential investor in the hotel resort sector has confirmed commitment to St. Helena while the prospect of air access remains.
The St. Helena Air Access Consultation Document refers to uncertainties about the assumptions underlying the airport investment. Examples given in paragraph 36 are: uncertainties about the possibility of cost escalation, due to currency fluctuation for example; and uncertainty over the speed with which benefits can build up, for example the rate and level at which tourism projections would materialise. The document also refers to the worsening global economic conditions and uncertainty over predictions as to how long the current situation will last.
The decision to pause negotiations on the St. Helena airport contract has not affected the level of DFID financial assistance for the island in the current planning cycle. The present three-year assistance package, which was negotiated with the Government of St. Helena (SHG) in 2007 remains unchanged. Our next assessment of the annual level of subsidy for St. Helena will be carried out jointly with SHG in early 2010. This will take into account the decision on the airport following the conclusion of the consultation now under way.