DEFRA does not hold the specific estimates requested. The most recent data available that can be used to estimate the carbon emissions of outdoor patio heaters are from 2007.
In spring 2007, the Government's Market Transformation Programme (MTP) produced a briefing note (BNDH18) intended to estimate the CO2 emissions as a result of the use of patio heaters. This note estimated that ‘outdoor heaters’ (both domestic and non-domestic) accounted for around 94.9 GWh of energy being consumed annually, equivalent to 22.2 ktCO2 (thousand tonnes of CO2).
In October 2007, the MTP updated the assumptions in the original study to estimate CO2 emissions from patio heaters as a result of the smoking ban. The report estimated that the annual emissions from patio heaters as a result of the smoking ban would be between 96 and 282 kt CO2, depending on the type of heaters and how they were used.
The MTP estimates are not derived from surveys or detailed research, and should not be interpreted as accurate data on energy consumption and carbon emissions. I am unable to give a prediction of future emissions as we have no way to estimate future sales of patio heaters.
The MTP's Briefing Note ‘BNDH18: Outdoor Heating for Comfort’ is available at:
www.mtprog.com