The Operational Efficiency programme (OEP) Review of the Met Office has not yet concluded. Work is now under way on the next steps set out for the Met Office review in the OEP final report published in April 2009. Progress will next be reported at the pre-Budget report 2009.
The Met Office is a World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) designated centre for long-range forecasts and carries out assessments of its forecasts using procedures required by WMO. The most recent assessment for the Europe/UK region was carried out in September 2009.
There are limits on predictability at long-range, however seasonal forecasting is a developing science and the Met Office expects substantive improvements to follow from current research programs. Results show that, for the Europe/UK region, forecasts correctly discriminate below or above normal temperature and rainfall levels by about 60 per cent. of the time, with percentages somewhat better for temperature. This reflects state-of-the-art skill for seasonal forecasting in the extratropical regions and is thus similar to that available from other leading WMO centres.
The nature of influences on seasonal conditions means that forecast skill is considerably higher in tropical regions than in the middle latitudes. This has led to use of Met Office global forecasts by many National Met Services worldwide, including in climate vulnerable regions such as parts of Africa.
The Met Office is a trading fund and provides weather and climate services under contract to a range of Government and commercial customers. In 2008-09, revenue from these services, including maintenance of the underpinning infrastructure, amounted to £184.8 million, of which £150.7 million was from Government customers. Staff costs were £84 million. The Met Office returned a dividend of £17.2 million to MOD in relation to this period.
Independent research has shown Met Office services for the public provide excellent value for money and an exceptional return on investment, creating value to the UK economy in excess of £600 million per year.
The Met Office provides crucial support to the armed forces, advising on the impacts of weather and other environmental factors on operations and developing cutting-edge technology to assist with decision-making and provide a battle-winning edge in theatre.
In addition, the MOD provides funding on behalf of Government for the Met Office to deliver the UK's Public Weather Service (PWS).
The asset management and sales strand of the Operational Efficiency Programme (OEP) is examining a number of assets, including the Met Office, to consider the potential for alternative business models, commercialisation, new market opportunities, and where appropriate, alternatives to public ownership. An update on progress will be provided with the 2009 pre-Budget report.
There are no current plans to make an assessment of the merits of linking the amount of funding allocated to the Met Office to the accuracy of its forecasts.