(2) for what reason he did not publish the economic modelling for the “Shaping the Future of Care Together” consultation before the consultation was concluded.
The Department is working towards publishing a White Paper on care and support in early 2010. We have been working with the Personal Social Services Research Unit (PSSRU) to provide the modelling and analysis to underpin our policy development. We were provided with an interim report from PSSRU in November but that was based on a view of the system when the Green Paper was published. Our core modelling assumptions have changed quite significantly since then as a result of our stakeholder engagement, responses to our consultation and developments such as the Prime Minister's announcement on free personal care. The report is therefore only part of the story and we have come to the conclusion that to publish it now could be unhelpful to the wider debate on the future of care and support.
The whole methodology of the interim report was published in July on the PSSRU's website at:
The top-level costs and benefits are in the impact assessment published with the Green Paper and available on the Big Care Debate website at:
PSSRU continue to model the costs and benefits of a new National Care Service based on revised assumptions.
It would be for local councils to assess whether or not an individual would benefit from re-ablement.
In the vast majority of cases, where people are receiving palliative care at the end of their lives, it is likely that such an intervention would be both entirely inappropriate and of no benefit to them.
The impact assessment estimates the first full year costs of extending free personal care at home to those with the highest needs at £537 million. It also estimates the costs of providing re-ablement services over the same period at £130 million, bringing the total costs of the proposals to approximately £670 million.
The impact assessment only covers the period from October 2010 to the end of 2012-13. Estimating beyond this point is problematic because of the uncertainties involved. The proposals here are intended as a step towards a fully integrated National Care Service, at which point a different set of assumptions may need to be applied.