The Ministry of Justice produces annual projections of the prison population in England and Wales, most recently in August 2009.
These project the prison population under three different scenarios, based on different assumptions about future sentencing trends: the Medium scenario assumes no increases or decreases in custody rates or determinate sentence lengths. The High/Low scenarios reflect a 1 per cent. per annum increase/decrease in custody rates and a 0.5 per cent. increase/decrease in the average (determinate) custodial sentence lengths.
Other impacts included in the projections, such as those of legislation and processes, are applied equally to all scenarios. These cover the anticipated impacts of policy and process initiatives that have agreed implementation timetables. These assumptions and anticipated impacts have remained unchanged since last year projections.
The requested information is shown in the following table:
High Medium Low 2010 85,700 84,900 83,900 2011 88,600 86,900 84,900 2012 90,200 87,700 84,900 2013 91,100 87,600 84,000 2014 92,400 88,000 83,500 Notes: 1. All numbers rounded to the nearest hundred. 2. The prison population is influenced by diverse factors that can mean that the actual future prison population may not be the same as that projected: changes in sentencer behaviour, policy decisions and the criminal justice process, which can respond to a multitude of environmental factors such as high profile criminal cases and public debate; implementation of new policies and processes without a timetable, or for which a quantitative assessment of the impact is currently not possible; unknown future policy, process and political changes.
More details on the projections may be found in the latest published bulletin, “Prison Population Projections 2009-2015” Ministry of Justice Statistics Bulletin, 28 August 2009. This is available at the following webpage:
http://www.justice.gov.uk/publications/prisonpopulation.htm
The latest projections for the prison population were published on the 28 August 2009, in the Ministry of Justice publication “Prison Population Projections 2009-15” available at:
http://www.justice.gov.uk/publications/statistics.htm
They cover the period August 2009—June 2015 and investigate three future scenarios.
These projections were produced using a version of the long term prison population projections model that was developed in the 1990's and has worked well. However, in line with good practice, further development of the long-term modelling of the prison projections is being undertaken in 2009 and 2010, to ensure the model continues to perform and is using the most up to date techniques and data. A new, more flexible framework will be developed.
This development process has provided the opportunity for stakeholders to influence the way in which the model is developed and they have been asked to comment, or ask for further details, via the MoJ website. At the current time no comments or other representations have been received.
With regards to prison capacity the Ministry of Justice has received different forms of representation on future prison capacity from a variety of sources, among them Members of Parliament, non-governmental organisations and members of the public. Details of all these representations are not all held centrally and could only be obtained at disproportionate cost.
(2) what criteria are used to determine the average cost of a prison place in England and Wales; and whether this includes the cost of the National Offender Management Service national and regional structures.
For 2008-09, the average cost per prisoner in an adult prison was £39,600 and in a young offender institution was £53,400.
These average costs comprise the expenditure on public and private prisons (as recorded in the National Offender Management Service (NOMS) Agency Annual Report and Accounts), increased by an apportionment of relevant costs borne centrally and in the regions by NOMS. This involves some estimation. In addition, expenditure met centrally by the Youth Justice Board (YJB) is included. The figures do not include the cost of prisoners held in police or court cells under Operation Safeguard, nor expenditure met by other Government Departments (e.g. Health and Education). The prisoner escort service costs are included. Where the costs of young people are recharged by NOMS to the YJB, expenditure is shown gross and not reduced by income from the YJB.
The Ministry of Justice produces annual projections of the prison population in England and Wales, most recently in August 2009.
These project the prison population under three different scenarios, based on different assumptions about future sentencing trends: the Medium scenario assumes no increases or decreases in custody rates or determinate sentence lengths. The High/Low scenarios reflect a 1 per cent. per annum increase/decrease in custody rates and a 0.5 per cent. increase/decrease in the average (determinate) custodial sentence lengths.
Other impacts included in the projections, such as those of legislation and processes, are applied equally to all scenarios. These cover the anticipated impacts of policy and process initiatives that have agreed implementation timetables. These assumptions and anticipated impacts have remained unchanged since last year projections.
The requested information is shown in the following table:
High Medium Low July 2009 83,962 83,962 83,962 August 2009 83,400 83,300 83,200 September 2009 83,700 83,600 83,400 October 2009 84,100 83,900 83,600 November 2009 84,200 83,900 83,500 December 2009 82,300 82,000 81,500 January 2010 83,300 82,900 82,400 February 2010 83,600 83,100 82,500 March 2010 84,800 84,200 83,500 April 2010 85,000 84,400 83,600 May 2010 85,000 84,300 83,400 June 2010 85,700 84,900 83,900 July 2010 86,600 85,700 84,700 August 2010 86,400 85,500 84,400 September 2010 86,700 85,700 84,400 October 2010 86,800 85,700 84,400 November 2010 87,300 86,100 84,800 December 2010 85,600 84,400 82,900 January 2011 86,500 85,200 83,600 February 2011 86,800 85,400 83,700 March 2011 87,800 86,400 84,600 April 2011 87,700 86,100 84,300 May 2011 88,000 86,300 84,400 June 2011 88,600 86,900 84,900 July 2011 89,200 87,400 85,300 August 2011 89,200 87,300 85,200 September 2011 89,300 87,400 85,200 October 2011 89,400 87,400 85,200 November 2011 89,600 87,500 85,200 December 2011 87,400 85,200 82,800 Notes: 1. Data are rounded to the nearest hundred. 2. Data are given for the last day of each month. 3. The prison population is influenced by diverse factors that can mean that the actual future prison population may not be the same as that projected: changes in sentencer behaviour, policy decisions and the criminal justice process, which can respond to a multitude of environmental factors such as high profile criminal cases and public debate; implementation of new policies and processes without a timetable, or for which a quantitative assessment of the impact is currently not possible; unknown future policy, process and political changes. 4. The July 2009 prison population figure is a provisional figure published on the 31 July 2009 by HM Prison Service: www.hm prisonservice.gov.uk/assets/documents/1000481131072009_ web_report.doc
More details on the projections may be found in the latest published bulletin, “Prison Population Projections 2009-2015” Ministry of Justice Statistics Bulletin, 28 August 2009. This is available at the following webpage:
http://www.justice.gov.uk/publications/prisonpopulation.htm