Prisoners Release
[Official Report, 8 March 2010, Vol. 507, c. 94-96W.]
Letter of correction from Mr. Jack Straw:
An error has been identified in the written answer given to the hon. and learned Member for Beaconsfield (Mr. Grieve) on 8 March 2010. The error occurred in the figures given for the period December 2012 to June 2015 relating to the “high” projection.
The correct answer should have been; (320059)
The Ministry of Justice produces annual projections of the prison population in England and Wales, most recently in August 2009. These project the prison population under three different scenarios, based on different assumptions about future sentencing trends.
Other impacts included in the projections, such as those of legislation and processes, are applied equally to all scenarios. These cover the anticipated impacts of policy and process initiatives that have agreed implementation timetables. These assumptions and anticipated impacts have remained unchanged since 2008 projections.
End of Custody Licence (ECL) was introduced on 29 June 2007. Under this scheme a prisoner who was given a determinate custodial sentence between four weeks and four years can be released on licence up to 18 days before the end of their sentence.
Because there was no agreed timetable for its conclusion, its effect was included throughout the projection period. In the second half of 2009, the caseload of prisoners on ECL has been between 1,000 and 1,200:
http://www.justice.gov.uk/publications/endofcustodylicence.htm
The scheme ends on 12 March this year as it was recently announced. As result of this, it is expected that by the end of March 2010, the prison population will be 1,000 to 1,200 higher than was anticipated in the current published prison population projections.
This effect will carry on from March 2010 estimates onwards. Here are last year's projections plus 1,200:
High Medium Low 2010 March 86,000 85,400 84,700 April 86,200 85,600 84,800 May 86,200 85,500 84,600 June 86,900 86,100 85,100 July 87,800 86,900 85,900 August 87,600 86,700 85,600 September 87,900 86,900 85,600 October 88,000 86,900 85,600 November 88,500 87,300 86,000 December 86,800 85,600 84,100 2011 January 87,700 86,400 84,800 February 88,000 86,600 84,900 March 89,000 87,600 85,800 April 88,900 87,300 85,500 May 89,200 87,500 85,600 June 89,800 88,100 86,100 July 90,400 88,600 86,500 August 90,400 88,500 86,400 September 90,500 88,600 86,400 October 90,600 88,600 86,400 November 90,800 88,700 86,400 December 88,600 86,400 84,000 2012 January 89,700 87,500 85,000 February 90,600 88,300 85,800 March 90,800 88,500 85,900 April 90,900 88,500 85,800 May 91,200 88,700 85,900 June 91,400 88,900 86,100 July 91,900 89,200 86,300 August 91,800 89,100 86,100 September 91,900 89,100 86,000 October 91,900 89,100 86,000 November 92,000 89,000 85,900 December 89,700 86,700 83,400 2013 January 90,700 87,700 84,300 February 91,600 88,500 85,100 March 91,800 88,600 85,100 April 91,800 88,500 85,000 May 92,100 88,700 85,100 June 92,300 88,800 85,200 July 92,700 89,200 85,400 August 92,600 89,000 85,200 September 92,700 89,000 85,100 October 92,700 89,000 85,000 November 92,800 89,000 85,000 December 90,600 86,700 82,600 2014 January 91,700 87,700 83,500 February 92,600 88,600 84,300 March 92,900 88,800 84,500 April 93,000 88,800 84,400 May 93,200 89,000 84,500 June 93,600 89,200 84,700 July 94,000 89,600 85,000 August 94,000 89,500 84,800 September 94,100 89,600 84,800 October 94,200 89,600 84,800 November 94,400 89,700 84,800 December 92,100 87,400 82,400 2015 January 93,200 88,400 83,400 February 94,200 89,300 84,200 March 94,500 89,500 84,300 April 94,600 89,500 84,300 May 94,800 89,700 84,400 June 95,100 89,900 84,500 Note: These figures will be revised in this year (2010) publication.
These figures will be revised in this year’s (2010) publication.
More details on the projections may be found in the latest published bulletin, “Prison Population Projections 2009-2015” Ministry of Justice Statistics Bulletin, 28 August 2009. This is available at the following webpage:
http://www.justice.gov.uk/publications/prisonpopulation.htm
also available the statement made by the Secretary of State for Justice on the subject of the release of prisoners under the early release scheme at:
House of Commons Hansard Debates for 22 Feb 2010 Vol. 506 c.27