2. What recent assessment he has made of the potential effect on the economy of the UK leaving the EU. (903816)

12. What recent assessment he has made of the potential effect on the economy of the UK leaving the EU. (903826)

My responsibility as Chancellor is for jobs, livelihoods and living standards. It is clear to me that a UK exit from the EU would be a long, costly and messy divorce that would hurt all those things. We have already seen sterling fall, and yesterday HSBC predicted a further 15% to 20% slump in the event of a vote to leave. The finance Ministers and central bank governors of the G20 concluded at the weekend that a British exit would cause an economic shock not just to the UK but to Europe and the world. What people are asking for in this referendum campaign is a serious, sober and principled assessment from the Government setting out the facts. I can announce today that the Treasury will publish before 23 June a comprehensive analysis of our membership of a reformed EU and the alternatives, including the long-term economic costs and benefits of EU membership and the risks associated with an exit.

Given that up to 140,000 jobs and half of the north-east region’s exports rely on Britain’s membership of the European Union, does the Chancellor agree with me and the majority of members of the North East chamber of commerce that an exit from the EU would be extremely damaging for north-east economic growth and regeneration?

Yes, I agree with both the hon. Lady and businesses in the north-east. Of course, the north-east has thrived by attracting big inward investment for car manufacturing and train manufacturing, most recently in Newton Aycliffe. One of the things that those who are advocating exit from the EU have to answer is, for example, what the alternative arrangement is for a large car factory in north-east England. Could it export its cars to mainland Europe without tariffs? It is not obvious that it is possible to do that without paying towards the EU budget and accepting the free movement of people.

Will the UK steel industry have a brighter future if we remain in the EU or if we leave the EU?

I believe that the best way to help the UK steel industry is both to take action at home and through being part of a large economic bloc—in other words, the European Union—raising our concerns about, for example, Chinese steel dumping. Frankly, when we make that argument with China, our voice will be amplified if we make it as part of the EU as opposed to making it alone.

In the event of a no vote, the Government have committed themselves to triggering article 50 straight away. I cannot see the point of that. Why do not the Government give some time between a no vote and the triggering of article 50, to enable a discussion to take place with counterparties and see the extent to which good faith could be established with the countries of the European Union? It seems illogical to restrict ourselves in that way.

It is not illogical that if the country votes to leave, we leave the European Union. That is the choice for the people of this country. The only available mechanism is the triggering of article 50, which gives a two-year time limit. Of course, we would try to negotiate in good faith and an extension can be achieved, but only with the consent of 27 other nations. People need to be aware that there are not going to be two referendums. It is decision day on 23 June. People need to choose and I think that voting to remain in the EU is the best outcome for our economic and national security.

Is it not extraordinary that the Chancellor asked the G20 to make that statement, and is it not the case that he made that request so that it could tee up this element of “Project Fear”?

The idea that the US Treasury Secretary, the head of the International Monetary Fund and, indeed, the Governor of the Central Bank of China dance to a British tune is, I am afraid, fanciful. Governors of central banks and the Finance Ministers of the G20 are saying the same thing as every major independent economic institution: that a British exit would cause an immediate economic shock and have longer economic costs. I totally understand why many of the people advocating exit want to do so, but, to be frank, they accept that there would be a short-term and potentially long-term economic cost. We should have that on the table, which is why the Treasury is going to produce its analysis.

Despite the recent gulag debacle, does the Chancellor agree that UK membership of the European Union should make it easier to clamp down on immoral tax avoidance by multinational companies?

I know that Russia Today is the favoured channel of the Labour leadership, but this is Treasury questions. We are raising with the European Union—this is another example of where being part of a bigger club helps—the possibility of getting a pan-European agreement for country-by-country public reporting so that we can see what multinational companies are paying in different countries. Of course, our ability to achieve that is amplified by being part of the EU.

If my right hon. Friend’s rather apocalyptic view of our leaving the European Union is correct, was it not irresponsible and inaccurate of the Prime Minister to say that he ruled nothing out prior to the completion of the most unsatisfactory renegotiation?

We have secured a renegotiation that I think addresses the principal British concerns about our membership of the European Union, and now we can advocate membership of this reformed EU. I think we will be stronger, safer and better off in that European Union.

19. Between 2007 and 2013, more than 8,000 businesses in the north-west were able to start up, thanks to EU funding. I welcome the Chancellor’s comments this morning about the analysis that he will put forward before 23 June. Will that include specific detail about the impact of leaving the EU on the economy of the north-west? (903834)

I am happy to take on board the hon. Lady’s request about the impact that an exit would have on the north-west of England. I am a north-west MP, and I know that many businesses in the north-west have access to that big free trade single market, which is the largest market in the world. All the alternatives on offer, whether we go for the approaches taken in Norway, Switzerland, Canada or the World Trade Organisation—of course, those who advocate withdrawal have not been able to settle on one approach—would involve some kind of barrier to entry, or we would have to pay into the EU budget, as Norway does, and accept free movement of people, which is one of the complaints about EU membership. Examining the alternatives, as we will do in the coming days, will throw a spotlight on the choice facing the country.

Should the British people decide to vote leave on 23 June, what arguments would the Chancellor deploy on 24 June in favour of the United Kingdom to attract investors and encourage them to invest in the United Kingdom rather than in other countries in Europe?

I will always fight, and the Government will always fight, for the best interests of the United Kingdom, and we will do whatever we can in response to the verdict of the people. My recommendation, and the recommendation of the British Government, is that we are better off in the reformed EU—

I did not ask that.

The point I make to my hon. Friend is that, of course, we will have to handle the situation if the British people choose to exit, and I would always want to stress that we are a great country to invest in, but I think that that argument will be weaker if we are not in the EU.

We are deeply grateful, but we must try to attend to the questions asked, and to do so in a timely way, because progress is desperately slow. Members can do better than that, one would hope.

Would there not be a double whammy if Britain left the EU? First, there is the widely predicted risk of depreciation, which will lead to higher interest rates. Secondly, any notion that our exporters would benefit from a cheaper pound is more than offset by the additional tariff barriers that those firms would encounter worldwide.

The former shadow Chancellor is right to point to both the immediate economic shock, which I think is generally accepted—even those who, for perfectly honourable reasons, advocate withdrawal, accept that there would be an immediate economic dislocation—and the longer-term costs. If we tell Britain to make this leap in the dark, we have to be able to answer the question: what is the alternative? How do we reassure the car manufacturer in north-east England that tariffs will not be imposed on its cars, as a result of which it will not be so competitive and there will not be so many jobs in its factory? Those are the questions for this big national debate.

Those who wish us to stay in the European Union say on the one hand that we are an insignificant economy and too small to stand on our own, but on the other hand that if we leave the European Union it will cause an economic meltdown around the world. They cannot both be true, Chancellor.

Our argument is that we will be stronger and better off inside the European Union. That is the positive choice that we face as a country. I, personally, do not think that we should leave the EU, but even those who contemplate doing so should think about this. With the economic situation that the world faces at the moment, and with the geopolitical situation that we face in Europe with Putin on our doorstep and the crisis in the middle east, is this the right moment to leave? My strong advice, the advice of the British Cabinet and the advice of the British Government is that we remain in this reformed EU.

The Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon was in London yesterday making the case for the UK to remain in the EU. She made the point that access to that market supports some 300,000 jobs in Scotland and some 3 million jobs in the UK. May I ask the Chancellor to agree with me—I am sure he will—that in terms of EU membership, trade deals are easier to agree as a bloc, harmonised regulation helps businesses to export and, notwithstanding the fact that improvements can always be made, being a member of the EU benefits consumers as well?

I agree that Scotland benefits from both being part of the United Kingdom and being part of the European Union. The hon. Gentleman is right to highlight the fact that EU agreements on things such as air travel and mobile phone charges have reduced costs for consumers. It is also the case that a depreciation in sterling leads to increased inflation.

The extent to which the EU has succeeded is actually quite remarkable in terms of free trade, free movement—we think it is a boon—and, indeed, the commensurate protections for the environment, social protection and employment rights. These substantial achievements of the European Union are to be celebrated, not renounced. That is the positive case we are making. May I urge the Chancellor and his right hon. Friend the Prime Minister to make a positive case, because the in campaign does not have a 20-point lead to squander with a negative campaign?

I am making the positive case that we will be stronger, safer and better off, which are all positive outcomes for our country, and I am pointing out that there are question marks over the alternatives. It is perfectly reasonable to point out that we do not know what the leap in the dark would entail, but of course I want to do this in a positive way. There is a healthy debate across our political system as well as across our country, but I take the view of Ronald Reagan’s 11th commandment, which is that “I won’t speak ill of a Conservative.”